The Synthetic & Rayon Textiles Export Promotion Council

MARKET WATCH 26 DEC 2020

NATIONAL

INTERNATIONAL

CAIT urges FM to defer rollout of Rule 86B in GST

Traders' body CAIT on Friday urged Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman to defer the implementation of Rule 86B in GST, whereby businesses with over Rs 50 lakh monthly turnover will have to pay at least 1 per cent of their GST liability in cash, terming it a "counterproductive" measure that will increase the traders' compliance burden.

The Central Board of Indirect Taxes and Customs has introduced Rule 86B in Goods and Services Tax (GST) which restricts use of input tax credit for discharging GST liability to 99 per cent.

However, this restriction will not apply where the managing director or any partner has paid more than Rs 1 lakh as income tax or the registered person has received a refund amount of over Rs 1 lakh in the preceding financial year on account of unutilised input tax credit.

The Confederation of All India Traders (CAIT) in a letter to Sitharaman has drawn her attention towards Section 86B, saying that "it is a counter-productive step which will load the traders further with burden of compliance and also much financial obligation".

The traders' body stated that it has "urged Sitharaman to defer implementation of Rule 86 B immediately which is scheduled to be implemented from January 1, 2021 and also extend the last date for filing GST and Income Tax Audit return from December 31 to March 31, 2021".

CAIT Secretary General Praveen Khandelwal said that in light of the current scenario when domestic trade  is disturbed due to repercussions of COVID-19 and traders are fighting for survival of business, it is "strongly urged that the implementation of Rule 86 B may be deferred".

He observed that GST has again culminated into a "cobweb for traders and it is a general feeling that instead of a simple tax it is becoming a much complicated tax system putting greater compliance burden on the traders".

"Unfettered and discretionary powers including cancellation of GST registration and power to arrest are vested to officials and its misappropriate use can't be ruled out," the traders' body claimed.

Source: The Economic Times

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Garment exporters shift focus on domestic market

Impressive demand in the domestic market has motivated many region-based readymade garment exporters to shift focus from exports, which has been hit by the Covid pandemic. According to the industry, some of the exporters have already started utilising their partial capacity to cater to the domestic demand.

Apparel exports during April-November declined to Rs 52,158.80 crore as against Rs 70,466 crore during the same period previous fiscal.

Subdued demand in exports markets and intense competition from Bangladesh, Vietnam, China and Pakistan posed a major threat to Indian exporters as their products are more competitive than that of Indian exporters.

The industry saw declining numbers in April, May, June, July, August and November — a fall of 91%, 66%, 35%, 22% and marginal decline of 1% in dollar terms on year-on-year, respectively, mainly due to the lockdown, slowdown and subdued demand. It witnessed a positive growth in September and October when it registered a growth of 10% and 6%, respectively.

“During the lockdown, followed by work from home culture and restricted business activity, there was hardly any demand. But now people have started making purchases in the domestic market,” said Harish Dua, MD, KG Exports, Ludhiana.

As a result, many apparel makers are shifting their focus to the domestic market from being purely export-oriented, he said.

Major apparel hubs in the northern region are Ludhiana, Jalandhar, Panipat, Gurugram and Noida.

Source: The Tribune

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Shipping container shortage to hit output, parts supply, fear automakers

Automakers in India are bracing for a parts shortage and possible production losses over the next three to four months due to a global shortage of available shipping containers, said a trade body in the world’s fifth biggest auto market.

Shipping freight rates have surged since July and companies are now finding it “almost impossible to sustain normal trade operations”, said Rajesh Menon, director general at the Society of Indian Automobile Manufacturers.

That is a cause for concern just as India’s auto industry has started showing signs of recovery after coronavirus lockdowns eased.

Denmark’s AP Moller-Maersk said overall exports from India have bounced back strongly but imports have not, leading to an imbalance and causing the container shortage.

Source: The Tribune

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Fashion’s search for meaning

As 2020 changes into nightclothes, deconstructing fashion’s blanched look only through the pandemic would offer a flawed story. The global lockdowns, the shuttering of stores, the human cost of halted production, grim reminders that fashion is a discretionary purchase, did lead to stupendous upheaval. Yet the metamorphic relationship between equality and exclusivity finally chose a side. It turned fashion, as we knew it, into unfashion.

Shoes, clothes, bags, trends, celebrities, OTT series, glamour-spiked (virtual) events—nothing resonated unless tagged with something meaningful. The Fashion Design Council of India (FDCI) started a fund for artisans, celebrities spoke for recyclable fashion, Meghan Markle gave up her duchess tiaras for free Californian skies and cropped pants, fashion magazines put doctors on covers to convey courage, Gita Gopinath, the International Monetary Fund’s chief economist, was Vogue India’s cover girl in November. That was hardly all. Actor-singer Zendaya won the fashion visionary award at the Green Carpet Fashion Awards in Italy, for being “a trailblazer in diversity, equality and sustainability”. Designers Mia Morikawa and Shani Himanshu of the Indian brand 11.11/ eleven eleven showed a film at the Lakmé Fashion Week’s season-fluid edition in October without a single fashion model. Instead, they showed artisanal hands at work, from hand-spinning to yarn-dyeing, exhibiting the “seed to stitch” journey of garments. An NFC (near-field communication) button stood for transparency, helping locate the exact destination of the spinner, dyer, weaver and artisan who made the garment.

What mattered is the spirit of our times. Dignity and equality for those who slave in fashion production. Circularity instead of the more-is-merry doctrine. Leadership and storytelling that is sensitive to race and diversity. Design that does not favour only the naturally pretty, tall or able-bodied. Clothes made without toxic dyes and polluting materials, their manufacturing process reimagined in socially just and environmentally safe ways.

Rise of dark stories

The pandemic has accelerated such transitions. But so has the Black Lives Matter movement in the West and sobering lessons from the migrant exodus from Indian cities. Among the stark questions that manufacturers and designers must answer are those about the miserable daily lives of migrants, a section of whom are allied workers in the fashion industry. What indeed is the real cost of beautiful clothes when those who work in the bottom rungs find themselves disowned and homeless in a crisis as unprecedented as this? An October report, titled The State Of Circular Innovation In The Indian Fashion And Textile Industries, by Fashion for Good, a platform for innovation, collaboration and community, reports the Indian fashion industry employs about 300 million people across the supply chain, 80% of them women. “As a production hub and a labour-intensive geography, worker empowerment is a critical area of innovation in India,” it says.

There has been a surge in dark stories. Just last week, a report by the Washington-based Center for Global Policy found that over 570,000 people from China’s minority groups are forced to labour in the Xinjiang region’s cotton farms, which supply one-fifth of the world’s cotton. It says some of the most-known fast-fashion, sportswear and luxury brands source their cotton and products from China. In India, a number of skilled and unskilled workers (including underage workers) are part of invisible supply chains for Western firms, where an order is sourced out to a vendor who outsources it to an unverified intermediary who “gets the job done”. Fashion brands barely know the hands behind their handbags, so to say, leave alone tracking welfare, wages and working conditions.

Not everything, though, can be laid at the door of ignorance. Recently, The New York Times reported the bankruptcy of top league Indian designer Manish Arora, alleging his company had not settled the dues of a section of employees, many of whom had continued to work even as the business spiralled out of control. The delays in salaries had begun in 2017 and some are still waiting to be paid.

Migrant lives matter, women’s lives matter, Dalit lives matter, farmers’ rights matter. And they are all linked to material, manufacture and supply of what eventually becomes fashion.

If you look at 2020 fashion through these prisms, it has been an unnerving year.

The diversity drumroll

Over the past few years, after a host of top luxury and fast-fashion brands—Dolce & Gabbana, Burberry, Gucci, H&M—were called out for producing culturally inappropriate fashion, corrective measures saw more brands realising there was sense in being “woke”. In 2018, H&M announced its first diversity leader. In 2019, the Italian luxury brand Prada set up the Prada Diversity and Inclusion Advisory Council. Gucci too hired a new head of diversity, equity and inclusion.

Yet this year’s protests after George Floyd’s death at the hands of a police officer in the US, which added fuel to the Black Lives Matter movement, showed the disconnect between claims and reality, in the fashion media too. In June, Anna Wintour, the global chief content officer and artistic director of Condé Nast, the most powerful fashion editor in the world, was called out for “sidelining women of colour for years”. Wintour apologised for “publishing stories and images that were hurtful or intolerant”. Christene Barberich, editor-in-chief of the 15-year-old fashion media website Refinery29, stepped down after allegations of discrimination from employees. In August, black employees at Nike urged the brand to face up to equality issues in the organisation before releasing its You Can’t Stop Us campaign, which features top black athletes, including tennis star Serena Williams.

The outcome matters as much. Diversity concerns ushered in unseen groups of models on catwalks and hitherto ignored professionals into workplaces, opening up new opportunities. Small changes, but they have begun to shrink what used to be the front-runners in the fashion game: elitism, exclusivity and privilege. According to the Diversity Report on digital platform fashionspot.com, the Spring 2020 season was historic for the diversity at the fashion weeks in New York, London, Milan and Paris. Of the 7,390 model castings at 215 major shows, 41.5% were models of colour.

Indian couturier Gaurav Gupta’s Name Is Love show, which opened the FDCI’s India Couture Week in September, queered the catwalk—it was inclusive in size, gender, sexuality and age. Travel and lifestyle brand Nicobar chose the grey-haired and elegant doctor, Gita Prakash, as the protagonist of its Diwali fashion edit. Raw Mango’s Festive 2020 fashion film and campaign Moomal, shot in founder-designer Sanjay Garg’s home town in Rajasthan, features 53-year-old actor Mita Vashisht. Kochi-based designer Sreejith Jeevan, founder of the label ROUKA, featured his mother Sailaja Jeevan in a sari campaign. Just last week, fashion’s grand matriarch, Ritu Kumar, released Equally Beautiful, a campaign by photographer Bikramjit Bose, with actor Zoya Hussein representing four faiths.

Noticeably, consumers have become aware of the plight of garment workers, child labour and other vulnerable groups in the fashion supply chain. Campaigns to end unethical practices and advocacy for fashion that is circular, recyclable, reusable and non-polluting are creating the biggest shifts. They make headlines in fashion media now. The State Of Fashion 2020 study by McKinsey, with online publication The Business of Fashion, found 55% of the consumers surveyed expect fashion brands to care for the health of employees in times of crisis. In a consumer survey for India Sustainability Report 2020, a white paper by the digital magazine The Voice of Fashion, 49% of the respondents said they wanted to adopt sustainable practices, while 65% were willing to pay more for responsibly made fashion.

In tandem, fashion companies are realigning priorities. Kering, the parent company of Gucci, Saint Laurent and Alexander McQueen, released its first progress report on sustainability at the ChangeNOW summit in January—on reducing emissions, suppliers and traceability of key raw materials. H&M has been making investments in sustainability to become “100 per cent circular”. India’s Aditya Birla Fashion Retail Ltd was judged Sustainable Corporate of the Year in 2019 in the Sustainability 4.0 Assessment and Awards by Frost & Sullivan and The Energy and Resources Institute.

In India, though, the dialogue is inconsistent. Most clothing retail and jewellery brands are averse to questioning. A majority of designers feel entitled to refuse transparency surveys. The rural artisan or the weaver, one-half of the prime duo that creates the country’s fashion, remains unequally placed. From credit to copyright to earnings and technological innovation, the game remains skewed in favour of urban designers and entrepreneurs.

Vogue Italia’s blank white April cover, the first such in the magazine’s history, was a response to the covid-19 crisis. “White is rebirth, light after the darkness…,” said the magazine’s editor-in-chief, Emanuele Farneti.

A blank slate is what Indian fashion needs. To document its search for meaning, beyond the fevered crossroads of 2020. A sensitivity vaccine would help.

Source: The Mint

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Textile Ministry streamlines procedures under tech up-gradation scheme A-TUFS

The Textile Ministry has taken additional steps to streamline procedures beneath the Amended Expertise Upgradation Fund Scheme (A-TUFS), together with a deadline extension for submitting functions for verification, to make it simpler for the trade to learn from it.

“The textile trade items claiming subsidy can file utility for bodily verification after set up and commissioning of the equipment, inside two years from the date of sanction of time period mortgage, topic to manufacturing of documentary proof that the order for equipment was positioned inside one 12 months,” stated a be aware ready by the Ministry of Textiles.

Additionally learn: Centre engaged on main interventions to place India as world textiles hub: Secy

Earlier, the items have been required to hunt approval for the second 12 months from the Textile Commissioner for extension of timeline past one 12 months with proof of pacing order for equipment, the be aware added.

Credit score-linked subsidy

A-TUFS goals to facilitate employment, funding, high quality, productiveness, in addition to import and export substitution within the textile trade whereas not directly selling investments within the manufacturing of equipment for textiles. It’s a credit score linked subsidy for capital funding within the textiles and manufacturing sectors.

The textile trade had made representations to the federal government looking for relaxations in numerous necessities beneath A-TUFS due to disruptions attributable to the Covid-19 pandemic.

Additionally learn: Textile Commissioner reopens doc submission window for TUFS

A leisure has been additionally been accredited within the 88-day timeline prescribed in A-TUFS pointers for finishing up bodily verification of equipment. That is designed to expedite the clearance of backlog verification instances beneath A-TUFS pending as a result of pandemic, the be aware stated. “This train might be accomplished by June 30, 2021,” it added.

Minimal mortgage reimbursement interval

The minimal mortgage reimbursement interval for each MSMEs and non-MSMEs has been revised to a few years together with the moratorium interval, the be aware stated. Earlier, it was 5 years for non-MSMEs.

In November 2020, 58 UIDs have been issued with a challenge price of ₹213.72 crore and subsidy requirement of ₹20.14 crore beneath A-TUFS, per newest figures.

Source: News Matters

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INTERNATIONAL

2021 to provide important opportunities to broaden India-US partnership: Biswal

Asserting that the long due US-India mini trade deal should be on top of agenda of the incoming Biden administration, US India Business Council president Nisha Desai Biswal has said that the ties between the two nations continued to be "strong and vibrant" and 2021 will provide important opportunities to broaden and deepen this partnership.

India and the US are negotiating a deal to iron out differences on trade issues to boost economic ties.

"The US-India relationship has continued to be strong and vibrant. That has been the case in the prior administration, in the current administration and I'm confident in the next one as well," USIBC president Biswal told in a year-end interview on Thursday, noting that the year 2020 started with the "strong and robust" visit of President Donald Trump to India.

Despite the fact that the US and India weren't able to see a mini trade deal launched, they did see that the robust strategic partnership was continuing to be advanced throughout the year, she said.

Be it the defence ties, close coordination between the US and India on regional and global challenges, the third 2+2 ministerial or further strengthening of the QUAD grouping (India, the US, Japan and Australia) in the Indo-Pacific, the bilateral has continued to strengthen, Biswal noted.

"Unfortunately, we haven't seen the same level of progress on the trade front. That is something that both countries will need to reflect on...2021 perhaps (would) provide some important opportunities to broaden the US-India partnership, continue the deep strategic convergence and broaden the partnership to reflect on some additional areas of opportunity," she said.

Biswal, who in her capacity as Assistant Secretary of State for South and Central Asia was one of the prime drivers of the India-US ties during the second term of the Obama administration, observed that the COVID-19 pandemic has underscored the importance that the two nations work together not only for the benefit of their own people but globally as well.

Climate change, one of the main focus areas of the Biden administration, would be another key area of cooperation between India and  the US in the next administration, she said.

India, Biswal noted, has made tremendous investments in clean energy, in solar and renewable.

Responding to a question, Biswal said while the two countries have not been able to advance the trade deal, they did made some significant progress on a number of policy issues which support increased trade and investment in the US-India corridor.

This has been an important year for advancing a number of key economic reforms. However, it is unfortunate that the two nations were not been able to sign the trade deal, despite having put a lot of time and efforts, she said.

Referring to the trade negotiations, Biswal praised the Indian side for coming to the table and looking to resolve some thorny issues like those related to medical devices, or tariffs. Similarly, on the US side, she said there was a real desire to try to get it done.

The USIBC president said the deal that perhaps could have gotten done 18 months ago wasn't the deal that could have gotten done six months ago.

"As time goes on, new issues emerge and then the expectations and the parameters that perhaps would have made the deal doable for one side are no longer the same as what the other side would need or wanted. That's unfortunate...there is a small basket of issues that could and should get resolved if not by the current administration ..

"(This is) not because it is so incredibly important or consequential, the small issues, they're very important and consequential to a few key sectors, but how do we approach the idea of a larger framework between our two countries, which we know is in our economic interest and in our strategic interest, how do we take that on if we cannot even come to closure on a small set of issues that should be relatively easier to find some gives and takes on," Biswal said.

She hoped that this is something that the two governments after January 20, when Joe Biden takes oath as US President, can quickly try to put a lid on and say, "okay, we got this done. Now, let's think about where we want to go in this relationship".

The US remained India's top trading partner for the second consecutive fiscal in 2019-20. According to the data of the commerce ministry, in 2019-20, the bilateral trade between the US and India stood at USD 88.75 billion, as against USD 87.96 billion in 2018-19.

Biswal noted that there are a number of areas where the US and India should be focusing like services sector, electronics and technology and pharmaceuticals.

"I know agriculture is very difficult. And I don't necessarily think that has to be the first thing on the docket. I recognise, the extreme sensitivity with which the reforms that were announced by the government are being met in terms of the social and political impact of those," she said.

Observing that trade is hard and politically very challenging in democracies like India and the US, Biswal said the two countries do need to work together for the larger benefit of both of the economies to create more growth and opportunities for their citizens.

India, she said, is a very important partner for the US, both in terms of the bilateral agenda, and also because the two countries collaborate on a number of big global challenges, including free and open Indo-Pacific, and climate security.

Source: The Economic Times

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India should now aggressively pursue FTAs with EU, UK: Trade experts

With European Union and the UK clinching a post-Brexit trade pact, India should now aggressively pursue free trade agreements (FTAs) separately with both the regions, according to experts.

Although it is premature to assess the gains for India from the agreement between European Union (EU) and the UK, Indian goods would not get much benefit from this pact, they said.

However, India can explore opportunities in service sectors like IT, architecture, research and development and engineering in both the markets as the EU-UK pact does not cover services, they added.

“There is not much gain for Indian goods, but we can gain in services sector in both the UK and EU markets. We will gain more in the UK market as we are English speaking country,” Federation of Indian Export Organisations (FIEO) Director General Ajay Sahai said.

He said there are no specific customs duty benefits for domestic goods from this agreement.

“Now we should push the FTA negotiations with both the EU and the UK. Indian competitors like Vietnam have greater duty advantage in sectors like apparel and marine goods,” Sahai said.

Sharing similar views, Biswajit Dhar, a professor of economics at Jawaharlal Nehru University, said India had a lot of contentious issues while negotiating FTA with the EU. However, after Brexit, the UK could have different stand on those issues and now “India should pursue FTA talks again with both the regions”.

He added that there is a possibility of doing a favourable free trade pact with the UK.

FIEO President Sharad Kumar Saraf said that India should now “aggressively” move on starting negotiations for FTA with both the EU and UK.

“We have requested the government to sign an MoU (Memorandum of Understanding) regarding a deadline to conclude FTA talks with Britain during the visit of UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson next month in India,” Saraf said.

Rakesh Mohan Joshi, professor at Indian Institute of Foreign Trade (IIFT), said that after the trade deal with the EU and the UK, India will get a better opportunity to cater to the demands of both the markets.

“But India needs to plan accordingly,” he added.

Apparel Export Promotion Council (AEPC) Chairman A Sakthivel said India-UK FTA would help in removing the customs duty disadvantages faced by domestic players in Britain.

Britain clinched a historic deal with the European Union on Thursday as both sides managed to thrash out a post-Brexit free trade agreement just days before the December 31 deadline.

The bilateral trade between India and the UK dipped to $15.5 billion in 2019-20 from $16.9 billion in 2018-19.

Source: The Financial Express

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China to overtake US as world's biggest economy by 2028

China will overtake the United States to become the world's biggest economy in 2028, five years earlier than previously estimated due to the contrasting recoveries of the two countries from the COVID-19 pandemic, a think tank said.

"For some time, an overarching theme of global economics has been the economic and soft power struggle between the United States and China," the Centre for Economics and Business Research said in an annual report published on Saturday.

"The COVID-19 pandemic and corresponding economic fallout have certainly tipped this rivalry in China's favour."

The CEBR said China's "skilful management of the pandemic", with its strict early lockdown, and hits to long-term growth in the West meant China's relative economic performance had improved.

China looked set for average economic growth of 5.7 per cent a year from 2021-25 before slowing to 4.5 per cent a year from 2026-30.

While the United States was likely to have a strong post-pandemic rebound in 2021, its growth would slow to 1.9 per cent a year between 2022 and 2024, and then to 1.6 per cent after that.

Japan would remain the world's third-biggest economy, in dollar terms, until the early 2030s when it would be overtaken by India, pushing Germany down from fourth to fifth.

The United Kingdom, currently the fifth-biggest economy by the CEBR's measure, would slip to sixth place from 2024.

However, despite a hit in 2021 from its exit from the European Union's single market, British GDP in dollars was forecast to be 23 per cent  higher than France's by 2035, helped by Britain's lead in the increasingly important digital economy.

Europe accounted for 19 per cent of output in the top 10 global economies in 2020 but that will fall to 12 per cent by 2035, or lower if there is an acrimonious split between the EU and Britain, the CEBR said.

It also said the pandemic's impact on the global economy was likely to show up in higher inflation, not slower growth.

"We see an economic cycle with rising interest rates in the mid-2020s," it said, posing a challenge for governments which have borrowed massively to fund their response to the COVID-19 crisis.

"But the underlying trends that have been accelerated by this point to a greener and more tech-based world as we move into the 2030s."

Source: The Tribune

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India sees faster growth recovery

The Indian economy is certainly ending the year 2020 with some positive cues as it pulls out of Covid-19’s deep abyss at a faster pace than most predictions, the Reserve Bank of India said in its monthly bulletin for December on Thursday.

“The bounce back of the Indian economy in the last few months has surpassed all expectations from the gloom and doom predictions early this year,” said Krishnan Ramachandran, CEO of Barjeel Geojit Financial Services. “Most core economic sectors of the economy have shown significant improvement in growth and there is a renewed confidence that 2021 will restore the economy to its normal levels. The ensuing budget is also expected to bring in another dose of proactive stimulus to propel growth and put more liquidity in the hands of industry and the consumers.”

The central bank has stated that more evidence has been turned in to show that the Indian economy is pulling out of Covid-19’s challenging times and is reflating at a pace that beats most predictions. Although headwinds blow, steadfast efforts by all stakeholders could put India on a faster growth trajectory.

The pandemic-imposed retrenchment in the first quarter of 2021 turned out to be much shallower in the second quarter and the economy is reflating at a pace that beats most predictions. The update of the Economic Activity Index (EAI) in the now casting assessment indicates that the real GDP growth is expected to break out into positive territory in the third quarter — albeit, at a slender 0.1 per cent.

“The fourth bi-monthly resolution of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) did maintain the status quo on the policy rate and stance; but a powerful message was conveyed: growth projections — the intermediate target under a flexible inflation targeting framework and the most potent communication tool — were revised upwards by 200 basis points from October and if they hold, the Indian economy will clock a growth rate of 14.2 per cent in the first half of 2021-22 on top of 0.4 per cent in the second half of 2020-21.”

According to the RBI bulletin, two important forces are ‘conspiring to bless’ this turning of the page on the virus. “First, India is bending the Covid infection curve: since mid-September, barring localised surges, infections are slanting downwards week after week, and the recovery rate is nudging 95 per cent.”

A battery of vaccine candidates has successfully hit not only trial status but also suitability for transportation, trials, usage in India, it said.

“Second, it is now getting clearer that there is a system to the fiscal stimulus, a ‘method’ if you will. Starting out with liquidity or guarantee and cash or kind support to the economy — the need of the hour when the pandemic struck and displaced crores from their lives and livelihoods — it is transiting in a calibrated fashion to supporting investment and consumption demand,” the bulletin said.

Bal Krishen, chairman of Century Financial, said: “During the Covid-19 pandemic peak, Indian auto sector suffered daily losses to the tune of Rs23 billion per day with more than 3.50 lakh jobs lost in the sector alone. This was primarily driven by various lock down restrictions and work from home orders which saw lesser traffic on roads. Even the people who had thought of buying a new car postponed their plans. This affected the sector in an extremely negative manner. Currently, with the Indian economy now almost open and daily lives of people getting back to normal, this sector will likely lead the recovery. Similar is the case for capital goods sector which is expected to attract new flows. Various measures and steps taken by the Indian government to make India self dependent along with huge fiscal stimulus measures will likely cause renewed interest in such core sectors. Various other steps taken by the government to reduce the overall leverage in system will surely show its effects in the longer run.”

Sectors such as auto and capital goods, which had been hit hard by the lockdown are expecting a turnaround in forward earnings. Healthcare, information technology (IT) and fast moving consumer goods (FMCG) companies are sighting stronger earnings outlook. Moreover, intrinsic strength in the manufacturing and services sectors is being built as debt servicing capacity is getting reinforced and leverage is being brought down. India’s farm sector is also forging ahead, backed by path-breaking marketing reforms.

Krishen added: “The Indian economic growth jumping back to positive territory can be attributed to factors like: flattening of Covid-19 curve; normalisation of economy post the lockdown restrictions; various fiscal measures announced by Indian government; prudent monetary policy measures by RBI; and ample global liquidity support in form of portfolio/FII flows.”

The fiscal measures have been sequenced in a designed shift in focus from consumption expenditure in Pradhan Mantri Garib Kalyan Package (PMGKP) to investment expenditure in Aatmanirbhar 2.0 and 3.0. On the whole, the above-the-line fiscal stimulus will likely boost growth by close to two per cent of GDP in 2020-21.

Source: The Khaleej Times

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