The Synthetic & Rayon Textiles Export Promotion Council

MARKET WATCH 29 OCT, 2019

NATIONAL

INTERNATIONAL

India, Peru to hold next round of FTA talks in Dec

India and South American country Peru will hold their next round of negotiations for a proposed free-trade agreement (FTA) at Lima in December, an official said. "Chief negotiators from both the countries will hold the sixth round of negotiations for the agreement in Lima in December," the official said. In an FTA, two trading partners significantly reduce or eliminate duties on most of the goods traded between them besides relaxing norms and rules to promote trade in services and increase bilateral investments. In the fifth round of talks, senior officials of both the sides deliberated upon issues such as national treatment and market access for goods, investments, dispute settlement, customs procedures, and trade facilitation. The main chapters of the agreement include trade in services, movement of professionals, investments, dispute settlement, technical barriers to trade, trade remedies, rules of origin of goods, customs procedures and trade facilitation. With growing uncertainties in its traditional markets, including the US and Europe, India is looking to enhance engagements with other regions such as Africa, South America and Central Asia. The Federation of Indian Export Organisations (FIEO) said Peru holds enormous opportunities for domestic exports. Engineering exporter and Ludhiana Handtool Association President S C Ralhan said, "It will be a good opportunity for domestic exporters to explore that market". Peru ranked third among export destinations for India in the Latin America and Caribbean (LAC) region. The bilateral trade between the nations increased to USD 3.13 billion in 2017-18 from USD 1.77 billion in the previous fiscal. Among the top-10 commodities that India exports to Peru are motor vehicles, cars, auto components, tyres, dyes, products of iron and steel, cotton yarn and fabrics. While imports include bulk minerals and ores, gold, fertilisers, aluminium, coffee, crude oil and zinc.

Source: Times of India

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India should adopt Singapore's ‘GST voucher scheme' to help lower, middle income groups: Experts

Singapore's Goods and Services Tax (GST) voucher scheme should be adopted in India to bring huge positive impact for those in the lower and middle income groups, say tax experts. “An interesting aspect of Singapore GST that can be adopted in India is the voucher system which provides benefits even to non-registered citizens of Singapore against the tax charged to them at the time of purchases made,” said Rashmi Deshpande, partner, Khaitan & Co, a consultancy firm that has a pan-India presence. She said there are three kinds of vouchers – Cash, MediSave and U-Save – being provided by Singapore to its citizens. Cash vouchers provide for cash for immediate needs. MediSave provides elderly Singaporeans aged 65 and above with benefits which will cover their medical expenses in the form of a top-up to their Central Provident Fund MediSave account, Deshpande explained. U-Save provides lower and middle-income households with quarterly rebates to offset their utility bills, she said. “In a country like ours where there is a huge population in the lower and middle-income groups, it will have a huge positive impact,” Deshpande said. Unlike Singapore where the lower income group pays exact same rate of GST as compared to the higher income group, the GST voucher scheme in India will help bridge the gap in terms of tax rates, she added. “In addition, the presence of such a scheme will also ensure tax compliance in order to avail the voucher benefits,” Deshpande said. According to the Inland Revenue Authority of Singapore (IRAS), which implements taxes in the island nation, GST is implemented as a 'multi-stage' tax where the tax is collected at every stage of the production and distribution chain. In its response to PTI on GST, the IRAS said the Singapore government has introduced several measures to help Singaporeans, especially lower-income households, cope with the impact of the GST. “For instance, the government absorbs GST on publicly subsidised education and healthcare, and has put in place a permanent GST voucher scheme to help Singaporeans offset some of their GST expenses,” it said. GST has been a stable source of revenue, contributing to a diversified base of government revenue for funding public goods and services, the IRAS said. The single GST rate of seven per cent is collected on most goods and services supplied in Singapore to keep the tax system simple. India has multiple tax slabs under the GST. Another tax expert, Gunjan Mishra of L&L Partners, said at present, to the extent that the GST is embedded in the retail price of goods and services supplied to consumer, lower-income consumers pay the GST in the same way as all other consumers. “Thus, the taxation of goods and services consumed by lower-income Indians under the GST raises some moral imperative issues for the government. As a measure of relief to the lower-income households, the government should consider introducing GST voucher scheme, akin to Singapore, to help cover some of their GST expenses,” she said. The GST voucher provided to lower-income households will enable the government to facilitate defraying GST expenses, Mishra said. “This would represent a substantial benefit to the lower-income Indians relative to their treatment under the existing Income Tax law,” she said. The government should undertake an assessment of the impact of GST on the lower-income class for determining eligibility criteria for the GST voucher, the form of assistance, and the extent of assistance to be provided under the GST voucher scheme, Mishra said.

Source: Economic Times

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GST, Chinese Imports Dim Hopes for Surat’s Textile Hub This Diwali

 “The government either doesn’t understand us or they simply ignore us,” says a disgruntled Ashok Jeerawala. Jeerawala is the president of the Federation of Gujarat Weaver’s Association in Surat who claims that this year’s Diwali is severely hit by the economy. Surat, the largest hub for both textiles and diamonds in India, is facing severe recession, as the demand has plummeted. And the Diwali season has not been able to bring in bumper sales like previous years. There are several reasons that can be attributed to the slowdown in Surat’s textile industry. “This year since the beginning – from Pongal which comes around 14 January – our business fell by 50 percent, followed by wedding season which again saw a 50 percent drop, followed by Eid, Gauri Ganesh, Durga Puja etc. All festive seasons including Rakhi, Savan even Navratri, everything has been down.” Ragnath Sarda, President, Federation of Surat Textile Traders Association. The Quint spoke with traders across the city to understand what dims the brightness for this year’s Diwali.

Poor Implementation of EXIM Policy & Poor Liquidity

China continues to be a scourge for the textile industry of Surat as its products are eating away the latter’s market share. According to Ashok Jeerawala, the government did impose a 20 percent anti-dumping duty on Chinese imports, yet China managed to circumvent Indian laws and taxes. “The Chinese are flooding our markets with their products by directing it through Sri Lanka, Nepal and Bangladesh. How can we compete if Chinese products flood the markets? The tiff between India and China is taking down our business.” Ashok Jeerawala. President of Federation of Gujarat Weaver’s Association Another major issue faced by the textile sector is lack of liquidity as payments are delayed by more than 100 days, claims Purshottam Agrawal, Joint Secretary, Federation Of Surat Textile Traders Association. “Earlier we used to get payments in 60 days. Now the payment is not coming in post 150 days. On several occasions, the trader is returning goods due to his inability to pay for it,” he said. The floods in UP and Bihar have also affected bills receivable as many retailers in the flood affected districts are finding it difficult to make payments due to lack of funds at their end. Ragnath Sarda, President of Federation Of Surat Textile Traders Association, said, “We haven’t received payment on the clothes that we sold there earlier, because they are in no position to open showrooms and sell the product. To top it off they have not purchased anything for Diwali.”

GST’s Negative Impact

Its been two years since GST was introduced, but the textile sector still has issues with the tax regime as they claim that it has drastically affected their revenue. “Before GST in Surat where we consider the Diwali business for 60 days where 50 days of trading happens, which is around Rs 12,000 crores of business including 450 trucks loaded with goods daily. After GST, last year our business came down to Rs 6,000 crore and the number of trucks came down to 275-300. Till last month we saw only 90-100 trucks leave from here. It has increased somewhat but it’s still not enough and we anticipate around 200 trucks leave the market. So all in all, 40 percent of the business loss will be recorded during Diwali.” “Our revenues are down by 50 percent when compared to last year. When GST was implemented we saw a 25 percent fall but this time the recession has pushed us down to 50 percent,” said Rajesh Agrawal, Treasurer, Federation Of Surat Textile Traders Association.

Ragnath Sarda explained further:

 “The traders have appealed to the government to revoke sections of the GST such as Reverse Charge Mechanism and Input Credit, but their pleas have fallen on deaf years.” “There are several such categories- GSTR-1, GSTR-3, GSTR-9 & 9C along with ITC-04 and RCM. We are flabbergasted with all these and are not able to focus on business. So our appeal to the government is that these categories under GST that are hampering business should be completely taken down,” said Sarda. Unless the government ensures remedial economic measures Surat’s future is headed towards darkness.

Source: The Quint

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India must take a leaf out of China's book and prepare its economy for RCEP

The economy needs changes that can't be made overnight; without them, it will continue to under-perform, whether India signs up for RCEP or not. Work should have started 7 years ago, writes T N Ninan. Shimon Peres, the late Israeli leader who signed the Oslo accords, once said that as soon as you begin negotiating with the enemy, you realise that you first have to negotiate with your own people. Trade negotiations are not with any enemy, for trade is supposed to be win-win. Still, as the tortuous talks over the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) have dragged on, it has become increasingly clear that the real negotiations that the government has to conduct are with Indian business, which, with almost no exceptions, is wary of yet another free trade agreement. Signing up for ...

Source: Business Standard

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US, China 'close to finalising' parts of Phase 1 trade pact: Report

US and Chinese trade officials are "close to finalizing" some parts of an agreement after high-level telephone discussions on Friday, the U.S. Trade Representative's office said, adding that deputy-level talks would proceed "continuously." In a statement issued after the call, the USTR provided no details on the areas of progress. "They made headway on specific issues and the two sides are close to finalizing some sections of the agreement. Discussions will go on continuously at the deputy level, and the principals will have another call in the near future," it said. The call came as Washington and Beijing are working to agree on the text for a "Phase 1" trade agreement announced by US. Trump has said he hopes to sign the deal with China's President Xi Jinping next month at a summit in Chile. Beijing was expected to request cancellation of some planned and existing U.S. tariffs on Chinese imports during the phone call, people briefed on the negotiations told Reuters. In return, China was expected to pledge to step up its purchases of U.S. agricultural products. The world's two largest economies are trying to calm a nearly 16-month trade war that is roiling financial markets, disrupting supply chains and slowing global economic growth. "They want to make a deal very badly," Trump told reporters at the White House. "They're going to be buying much more farm products than anybody thought possible." So far, Trump has agreed only to cancel an Oct. 15 increase in tariffs on $250 billion in Chinese goods as part of understandings reached on agricultural purchases, increased access to China's financial services markets, improved protections for intellectual property rights and a currency pact. But to seal the deal, Beijing is expected to ask Washington to drop its plan to impose tariffs on $156 billion worth of Chinese goods, including cell phones, laptop computers and toys, on Dec. 15, two U.S.-based sources told Reuters. Beijing also is likely to seek removal of 15% tariffs imposed on Sept. 1 on about $125 billion of Chinese goods, one of the sources said. Trump imposed the tariffs in August after a failed round of talks, effectively setting up punitive duties on nearly all of the $550 billion in U.S. imports from China. "The Chinese want to get back to tariffs on just the original $250 billion in goods," the source said. Derek Scissors, a resident scholar and China expert at the American Enterprise Institute in Washington, said the original goal of the early October talks was to finalize a text on intellectual property, agriculture and market access to pave the way for a postponement of the Dec. 15 tariffs. "It's odd that (the president) was so upbeat with (Chinese Vice-Premier) Liu He and yet we still don't have the Dec. 15 tariffs taken off the table," Scissors said. U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin last week said no decisions were made about the Dec. 15 tariffs, but added: "We'll address that as we continue to have conversations."

Smaller Purchases?

If a text can be sealed, Beijing in return would exempt some U.S. agricultural products from tariffs, including soybeans, wheat and corn, a China-based source told Reuters. Buyers would be exempt from extra tariffs for future buying and get returns for tariffs they already paid in previous purchases of the products on the list. But the ultimate amounts of China's purchases are uncertain. Trump has touted purchases of $40 billion to $50 billion annually - far above China's 2017 purchases of $19.5 billion as measured by the American Farm Bureau. One of the sources briefed on the talks said China's offer would start at around $20 billion in annual purchases, largely restoring the pre-trade-war status quo, but this could rise over time. Purchases also would depend on market conditions and pricing. U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer has emphasized China's agreement to remove some restrictions on US genetically modified crops and other food safety barriers, which the sources said is significant because it could pave the way for much higher US farm exports to China. The high-level call came a day after US Vice President Mike Pence railed against China's trade practices and what he termed construction of a "surveillance state" in a major policy speech. But Pence left the door open to a trade deal with China, saying Trump wanted a "constructive" relationship with Beijing. While the US tariffs on Chinese goods has brought China to the negotiating table to address U.S. grievances over its trade practices and intellectual property practices, they have so far failed to lead to significant change in China's state-led economic model. The "Phase 1" deal will ease tensions and provide some market stability, but is expected to do little to deal with core U.S. complaints about Chinese theft and forced transfer of American intellectual property and technology. The intellectual property rights chapter in the agreement largely deals with copyright and trademark issues and pledges to curb technology transfers that Beijing has already put into a new investment law, people familiar with the discussions said. More difficult issues, including data restrictions, China's cybersecurity regulations and industrial subsidies will be left for later phases of talks. But some China trade experts said that a completion of a Phase 1 deal could leave little incentive for China to negotiate further, especially with a U.S. election in 2020. "U.S.-China talks change very quickly from hot to cold but, the longer it takes to nail down the easy phase 1, the harder it is to imagine a phase 2 breakthrough," said Scissors.

Source: Reuters

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How man-made textiles are changing fashion

Words like sustainability, circular fashion, upcycling and recycling may have entered the fashion vocabulary, but the real challenge is to find fibres that have a low environmental impact and non-polluting processes. Call it the cotton paradox. Cotton is beautiful, breathable and defines our national narrative. It is also a water-intensive crop and may be overdependent on pesticides. Its processing footprint isn’t great either. According to the World Wildlife Fund, it takes 2,700 litres of water to produce one cotton T-shirt. You can go natural and biodegradable but that may not always add up to sustainability. The fashion industry, which is often accused of paying lip service to sustainability, is seeking alternative fibres. There are multiple considerations though: the fabric should be soft enough to cut, allow for drape and silhouette and be economical enough to scale up to collections or fast fashion. Beyond the “organic" labelling, sustainability encompasses a larger universe of environmental impact that includes energy sources, water consumption and transparent and responsible processing. Designer Hemant Sagar (of the label Lecoanet Hemant), who has launched a range of leisurewear made in the Ayurvastra tradition—dyed with medicinal herbs—called Ayurganic, mentions a high fibre-yielding plant called Ramie. Found in abundance in Meghalaya’s Garo region, it yields a linen-like fibre. It has been creating a buzz because it is strong, naturally antibacterial and needs no pesticides. Sagar invited 17 designers, including Love Birds, Kishmish and PELLA, to create designs with a blend he created of Ramie, silk and cotton fibres at an exhibition at the French embassy in Delhi last year. “At that point," says Sagar, “we were working at getting the stickiness and stiffness out of the fibre. This usually demands a chemical solution that will be polluting. The idea is to act proactively and work on it right from the beginning so that the fibre is 100% organic and no chemical procedure is required at any step even later." He adds that they are working in collaboration with the agriculture university in Shillong, Lille University in the north of France and government in Meghalaya. Sagar is happy about the Ramie growers’ collective, and his design experiment—it yielded 200 pieces of Ramie fibre blended with organic cotton and silk fibres—which started the conversation. “Each time I mention the project, it becomes bigger and bigger," he says. If Sagar and the Ramie growers are looking at creating a new strain of fibre, Austria-based Lenzing has established a firm foothold in the alternative fibre space. “While cotton is well recognized in India, wood-based cellulosic fibres are the fastest growing category in the fashion industry," says Arpit Srivastava, marketing and branding manager, South Asia and Thailand, Lenzing Group. Tencel—which created waves when it amped up its computer research in 2018—is made from wood cellulose sourced through responsible local forest cultivation. Seen as an alternative to heavily processed rayon, Tencel has been adopted by many in fashion (the Birla group also manufactures its version of wood cellulose fibre under the brand name Excel). In August, Lenzing launched EcoVero in India at the Lakmé Fashion Week in collaboration with designers Abraham & Thakore, who used this new fibre to create a line of modern kurtas. EcoVero is still a form of wood cellulose but it claims to have the lowest environmental impact and is made in a completely sustainable way. Lenzing uses what they refer to as a “circular economy" where waste is minimized or eliminated completely and a “closed loop" system, which means that though chemicals and dyes are used, they are constantly recycled and never pumped back into the environment. “Turning fibre into a sports jacket or an evening blouse involves numerous stages and specialists and it is important to control these processes", says Srivastava. Without process controls, it is possible that the shirt labelled 100% organic may have spewed polluting chemicals into the environment through bleaching, dyeing and softening processes on its way to becoming a shirt. The Bombay Hemp Company (Boheco), which was a runner-up at the Tata Social Enterprise Challenge in 2017, is now backed by industrialist Ratan Tata and Sequoia managing director Rajan Anandan. It was started in 2013 by seven co-founders as an industrial hemp and medicinal cannabis company. They have now ventured into fashion with B Label. “Our vision is to create a tribe of hemp natives, mindful choosers who want to lead healthy and sustainable lives whether it is in health, hemp consumables (like hemp seeds and hemp hearts) or fashion," says co-founder Chirag Tekchandaney. Hemp is a bit of a wonder plant. Native to Asia and grown in north India, it is a zero-waste plant, i.e. every bit of the plant can be used. It needs less water than cotton, grows fast, prevents soil erosion, absorbs carbon, is resistant to mould, needs no pesticides and lasts longer than most other fibres. It is an ancient plant which was very popular as clothing in Europe for centuries and is making a comeback, thanks to the fact it is an environmental warrior, with uses across industries like beauty, health and construction. For a sustainable clothing label, B Label’s prices are surprisingly accessible, considering that terms like organic or sustainable can often mean “wildly expensive". B Label’s hemp dresses start at about ₹2,500, which competes with high street and fast fashion pricing. This is in line with the founders’ vision that sustainable clothing can be profitable without unreal mark-ups. “It is only fair," says Tekchandaney, “that we offer this alternative lifestyle to our consumers at compelling prices that encourage them to buy". Designers and fashion editors are pushing for more research and newer materials. International designer Issey Miyake has been an energetic experimenter with both synthetic and natural fibres. His collections have used paper, horse hair and recycled petroleum. Tencel and EcoVero have been associated with designers like Rajesh Pratap Singh, Anita Dongre, Mara Hoffman, Mehtap Elaidi and Patrick Owen. Bioplastics made from vegetable starches, recycled agricultural waste and recycled plastics are becoming an area of research in fashion too. Juice brand Raw Pressery launched a small collection of T-shirts, each made of seven recycled PET bottles, to demonstrate its eco-credentials. But there is a still a long way to go—it begins with awareness and small steps. For instance, the Lakmé Fashion Week now includes a “circular fashion" day, with business pitches from young designers working in the sustainable space . Thirty-six brands, including H&M and Burberry, one fast fashion and one high fashion, have signed a pledge with not-for-profit Better Cotton Initiative’s sustainability programme to switch to sustainable cotton by 2025. Chanel, Hermès and Stella McCartney are among the 150 brands that have signed French President Emmanuel Macron’s Fashion Pact and committed to an ambitious environmental pledge that covers global warming, the impact of plastics, biodiversity and alternative sustainable practices. Now, as consumers, it is up to us to hold them responsible for fulfilling their promises and make our own choices based on a garment’s sustainability quotient.

Source: Live Mint

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Bilateral trade showing positive trend: India's envoy to Vietnam

The data for the period January-July 2019 showed that bilateral trade had already reached $7.5 billion. Furthermore, the two countries have set a trade target of $15 billion by 2020. The Indo-Vietnamese bilateral trade has shown a positive momentum in 2019 and the trend is expected to get a further boost due to the launch of direct air connectivity between the two countries, India's envoy to Vietnam has said. According to India's Ambassador to Vietnam Pranay Verma, both economies have many areas of mutual complementarity which provides a strong foundation for growth of bilateral trade, which has nearly doubled over the last three years. "Both countries are at important stages of economic development, and their economies have a significantly high level of domestic demand and consumption of goods and services, which continue to make them attractive destinations for businesses," Verma told IANS. "Driven by these fundamentals, the bilateral trade in 2019 between India and Vietnam continues to show a positive trend," he said. As per official data, the bilateral trade turnover had registered a record annual growth of 12.81 per cent and touched $13.93 billion in 2018. The data for the period January-July 2019 showed that bilateral trade had already reached $7.5 billion. Furthermore, the two countries have set a trade target of $15 billion by 2020. At present, Vietnam exports mobile phones and components, machinery, computers and electronic hardware, natural rubber, chemicals and coffee to India. On the other hand, India ships out meat and fishery products, corn, steel, pharmaceuticals, cotton and machinery to Vietnam. On the launch of direct flight connections between India and Vietnam, Verma said: "Vietnam is an important trading partner for us in the ASEAN region. There are sizeable Indian investments in Vietnam. "However, lack of direct connectivity has kept this engagement from reaching its potential. We are hopeful that direct flight connections will raise the level of our economic partnership by bringing our businesses closer and encouraging them to explore new complementarities." Verma's assertion that direct flight connections between the two countries will give a boost to business relations has been corroborated by IndiGo's Chief Commercial Officer William Boulter. Recently, IndiGo started daily direct flights between Kolkata and Ho Chi Minh City and Hanoi. "There is a massive potential on the routes between India and Vietnam. We foresee substantial traffic growth between the two countries. There are smaller carriers from Korea and other places that offer 10 daily flights to Vietnam," Boulter told IANS. "Similarly, as traffic between the two countries rise, we will also increase our flight frequencies to Vietnam from one daily direct flight to Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City from Kolkata," Boulter added. Another airline -- Vietjet -- will be starting direct flights from New Delhi to Ho Chi Minh City and Hanoi in December. In addition, B. Subhash Chandar, Director for MICE and Asia Market for Asia Destination Management Company, told IANS: "There has been a massive increase in India's presence in Vietnam for the last few years, especially after Indian TV serials were shown here. Indian culture and yoga have become very popular in Vietnam. "Indian companies have slowly moved to Vietnam. From India, several garment, pharmaceutical, apparel manufacturers and restaurants have invested in Vietnam."

Source: ET Now

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Stakeholders meet may give a desired push to India-Bangladesh economic ties

Assam can export about 821 products to Bangladesh that it is currently exporting to other countries. India-Bangladesh economic relationship is at a crossroad, where India is poised to become a $5 trillion economy in 2024 as enunciated by Prime Minister Narendra Modi, and the process has started for Bangladesh to project the country as a middle-income developing economy by 2024.

It is in this respect that India’s Act East Policy holds the key for the success of this proposed growth convergence. The initiative by Assam to hold a stakeholders meeting in Guwahati on 22-23 October is expected to give the desired push to strengthening India-Bangladesh economic ...

Source:  Business Standard

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RCEP deal: Japan tries to convince China to relax demands on India

To make the proposed Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) deal between 16 nations more acceptable to Indian negotiators, Japan is trying to convince China to lower demands put forward to New Delhi seeking a reduction or elimination of import duties on goods, a person close to the negotiations has said. Trade Ministers from RCEP countries are scheduled to meet again on November 2-3 in Bangkok to see if an announcement on concluding the deal could be made at the RCEP Leaders Summit on November 4 as planned, or whether a partial conclusion is all that that can be managed at the moment, the official added. The RCEP deal is being negotiated by 16 countries, including the 10-member ASEAN, China, India, South Korea, Japan, Australia and New Zealand. It is one of the largest free trade deals being negotiated globally, accounting for about half the world’s population and a third of its GDP.

Last-minute objections

India had raised strong last-minute objections to the proposed RCEP pact at the meeting of Trade Ministers in Bangkok earlier this month when all members were supposed to settle their niggling differences and reach an agreement on all issues. “It was deeply surprising to see Indian Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal suddenly adopt a harsh position on a number of issues and demand more safeguards than other members were ready to give. Many of these issues were seen as settled earlier with mutual consent of all members, including India, but these were being freshly raised,” the official said. Many of the demands raised by India were in the area of enhanced coverage of items under the auto trigger mechanism and relatively tougher rules of origin. While the auto trigger mechanism will lead to an increase in import duties as soon as inflows of a particular product rise beyond a certain threshold, tough rules of origin aim to ensure that there is substantial value addition to a product before it is exported to another country where it is eligible for preferential duties. The apprehension being felt by many industrial sectors and farmers on a possible flooding of the market with cheap imports once import duties on goods from China are pared is one of the reasons behind India’s hard posture at the negotiations. “Japan has probably realised that India will not have the political appetite to say yes to the RCEP pact unless China’s demands go down a bit. That is why Japan seems to have taken up cudgels on behalf of Indian negotiators. But Japan would also want to ensure that India does not not backtrack further if it manages to convince China to compromise,” the official said.

Source: The Hindu BusinessLine

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WTO to decide on India’s retaliatory tariffs

The World Trade Organization agreed on Monday to establish a panel to settle a disagreement over India’s decision to impose retaliatory import tariffs on 28 US products. This comes almost a month after India blocked the first request by the US to set up a panel to decide on New Delhi’s decision to impose additional duties on products including apples, walnuts, chickpeas, lentils, boric acid and diagnostic reagents. The WTO’s Dispute Settlement Body agreed to the second request by the US for establishment of the panel, a Geneva-based official said. The decision of the panel will have an important bearing on duties levied by other countries on US goods following protectionist measures by the Trump administration. “This development means there will be a decision by the WTO and it could be a moral victory if we win because it would have been resolved at the multilateral level,” said a New Delhi-based expert on WTO issues.

Source: Economic Times

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Changing consumer preferences bleed cotton mills, cheer polyester makers

The marked improvement in the profitability of polyester makers has come at the cost of thousands of spinning mills, many of which fear closure due to the sustained decline in cotton yarn and a significant change in consumer preferences. The Cotton Textile Export Promotion Council (Texprocil), the apex industrial body of the sector, showed a 38.8 per cent decline in the value of India’s cotton yarn exports, at $1.28 billion for the period between July and September 2019, from $2.09 billion in the corresponding period last year. Cotton yarn exports have been steadily declining month after month this year, even by volume, from 90 million kg in April to 67 million kg in September. Problems for spinning mills were aggravated with lukewarm domestic demand. The ongoing economic slowdown and rural distress have worsened demand of textile and all other products in the value chain. “Exports of cotton yarn have registered a negative growth since April this year, which is a matter of deep concern. Many of the spinning mills are on the verge of closure, which may cause unemployment,” said K V Srinivasan, Chairman, Texprocil. By contrast, the demand of polyester yarn and fabric has increased as these products are much cheaper than cotton. Industry sources estimate polyester to be 40-50 per cent cheaper than cotton across all variants. With crude oil prices moving in a narrow range, polyester makers plan their business for long term and invest in plant and machinery in anticipation on a rapidly-changing consumer preference for polyester blended fabric. “The profitability of Indian polyester yarn manufacturers has been growing steadily. This is primarily on account of the rise in consumption of synthetic yarns across the world, as compared to natural fibres. Moreover, cost competitiveness of Indian manufacturers has been better than that of north-east Asia manufacturers, which has resulted in better operating margins and profitability,” said Madhusudan Bhagaria, chairman and managing director, Filatex India (FIL), one of India’s largest makers of polyester yarn. FIL has seen a substantial improvement in its financial performance over the past three years, led by better volume growth and operational efficiency measures. FIL reported a CAGR of 48.42 in its net profit to Rs 85 crore in FY19, from Rs 26 crore in FY16. Bhilosa Industries, second largest polyester yarn manufacturing company saw its EBITDA and profit after tax rise by 13 per cent and 21 per cent, respectively, during the period under consideration. “As against a global average of 60:40 polyester and cotton blending, India continues to remain at 45:55, which shows an improvement of five per cent more polyester blending in the last three years. While demand continues to move in favour of polyester, we believe the blending percentage will further improve resulting into more demand and profitability for polyester makers,” said an industry veteran. Along with the better properties which polyester filaments hold, one factor that also helped in increasing its production and usage is limited availability of natural fibres like cotton and the consequent increase in cost of production. In India, demand for polyester fibres has been growing strongly, led by steady consumption from textiles firms. Moreover, domestic manufacturers of polyester yarns have been able to increase their capacity utilisation as the anti-dumping duty imposed on China led to a pick-up in domestic demand compared to imported yarns. Meanwhile, Srinivasan has urged the government to protect spinning mills from closure. “Cotton yarn is the only product that hasn't been granted export benefits such as Merchandized Export Incentive Scheme (MEIS) and three per cent Interest Equalization Scheme. Additionally, exporters of cotton yarn are at a serious disadvantage vis-a-vis competing countries due to differential import duties between 3.5 and 5 per cent in leading export markets,” said Srinivasan.

Source: Business Standard

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Now, officers to exclusively handle GST, Customs complaints

In line with Prime Minister Narendra Modi's assurance that honest taxpayers would not be harassed and wealth creators would be respected, the indirect tax body - Central Board of Indirect Taxes and Customs (CBIC) has directed to appoint a nodal officer in each CGST and Customs Commissionerate to sort out taxpayer grievances.  Industry and tax experts have hailed the decision saying that the move would ensure an escalation point for taxpayers in case their grievances are not addressed at designated level. "In order to institutionalize the taxpayers' services in the field formations, it is necessary to designate officers who are to act as the nodal officers assigned with the job of taxpayer service," CBIC Chairman P. K. Das has written to senior officers. Accordingly, each CGST and Customs Commissionerate would have a nodal officer in the rank of Joint/Additional Commissioner. These officers would draw up plans for reaching out to the stakeholders in their jurisdictions. "The Directorate of Taxpayer Service would regularly monitor the work done by the nodal officers who would be extended arm of the CBIC for rendering taxpayer services. Any move which identifies a certain person as someone who could act as central point for escalation of cases is good move. It is a good move but one has to see how effective it is. In order to ensure that it works, a transparent monitoring mechanism has to be there," said Amit Bhagat, Partner, Dhruva Advisors. The CBIC Chief in his letter to senior field officers noted that PM Modi had emphasized the urgent need to prioritize taxpayer service. He noted that taxpayers committing minor or procedural violations should not be subjected to disproportionate or excessive action and that wealth creators are respected. Rajat Mohan, Senior Partner, AMRG & Associates said that taxpayers presently have to chase various officers for resolving issues and hence the move to appoint a nodal officer would be a big relief.

Source: Economic Times

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BRICS has lost relevance as economic grouping, says Standard & Poor's

The better-than-projected economic performance of China and India over the past two decades contrasts with disappointing results in Brazil, Russia, and South Africa. Global rating agency Standard & Poor’s (S&P) has said that Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa (BRICS) as economic grouping has lost relevance due to diverging long-term economic trajectory

  • The better-than-projected economic performance of China and India over the past two decades contrasts with disappointing results in Brazil, Russia, and South Africa
  • China and India have maintained stable pro-growth economic policies and have gained a larger role in the world economy
  • In contrast, the comparatively poor long-term performance of the other three countries has diminished their global economic role
  • All the five have very low foreign currency borrowing in either public or private sectors
  • Brazil and India both have the weakest fiscal and debt profile, followed by South Africa. Russia’s fiscal and debt profile is slightly better than that of China
  • The rating agency maintains a favourable or neutral assessment of monetary flexibility for all the five countries

Source:  Business Standard

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China Signs its First African Free Trade Agreement with Mauritius

China and Mauritius signed a free trade agreement (FTA) on October 17. This is China’s first FTA with an African nation. The agreement will reportedly give Mauritius duty-free access to about 8,547 products, representing 96 percent of Chinese tariff lines. The FTA also covers more than 40 service sectors, including financial services, telecommunications, ICT, professional services, construction, and health services. Mauritius nationals will also be able to establish businesses in China as wholly-owned entities and through joint partnerships with Chinese operators. China and Mauritius pledged to eventually reach zero tariffs on 96.3 percent and 94.2 percent of traded items, respectively. These account for 92.8 percent of import volume for both countries to each other. The agreement was in the works since 2017 and is likely part of Mauritius’ three-year development strategy to 2021, which aims to shift the island’s reliance away from Europe and achieve further economic penetration into ASEAN. Mauritius’ Prime Minister’s Office noted that the agreement, “would lay the basis for the opening of an Economic and Trade Office by the Economic Development Board in Shanghai and would facilitate promotional activities of the Government of Mauritius in key target cities in line with the ‘Go East Strategy’ to explore avenues to increase FDI and trade between Mauritius and China.” Chinese presence in Mauritius dates to the 1600’s. While the local Chinese community currently makes up only two to three percent of the population, they have contributed significantly to the country’s economic growth. Mauritius was ranked as the best place to do business in Africa in 2018 and is touted to achieve the status of being a developed economy by 2020. Stronger trade and business ties with China could accelerate this progress. Key beneficiaries include trade in iron and steel products, textiles, and light industrial products, which are China’s main exports to Mauritius. China has agreed, in turn, to export sugar produced in Mauritius, among other products. The China-Mauritius FTA provides clear guidance on rules of origin, trade remedies, and technical barriers to trade and sanitary and phytosanitary issues.

Source: China Briefing

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China industrial profits in biggest fall in four years as US tariffs bite

Profits at China’s industrial enterprises shrank 5.3 per cent in September from a year earlier, marking the deepest fall in four years, according to data from the National Bureau of Statistics on Sunday. The fall of profits in September marked an acceleration from the drop of 2 per cent in August and was the biggest decline since August 2015, showing trouble for the world’s second biggest economy as the trade war with the US took its toll on China’s economic activity. In the first nine months, combined profits made by Chinese industrial enterprises fell 2.1 per cent from the same period last year, the statistics agency said. Among them, profits at state-owned enterprises fell 9.6 per cent while private business profits rose 5.4 per cent. Profits at industrial enterprises funded by foreign funds and Hong Kong investors fell 4.2 per cent. In a breakdown of sectors, profits in petroleum, coal and other fuel processing shrank 53.5 per cent in the first nine months of this year compared to a year ago, while profits in the ferrous metal processing industry dropped 41.8 per cent. Car manufacturing profits dropped 16.6 per cent, and profits in the textile industry fell 4.3 per cent, according to NBS. Manufacturing profits fell 3.9 per cent in the first three quarters. The statistics agency did not provide a detailed breakdown for the September profits figure. The worsening industrial profitability is a sign that organic growth momentum is waning in China, despite the government’s efforts to bolster growth with targeted fiscal stimulus. China’s gross domestic product growth slowed to 6 per cent year-on-year in the third quarter , decelerating from the previous quarter’s 6.2 per cent and touching the lower end of the government’s target for this year. The statistics agency said the fall in profits in September “was due to a faster decline in industrial product prices and a slower growth in sales”. In the past week, Beijing has promised to buy US$40 billion to US$50 billion worth of US farm produce – partly in return for Washington suspending a tariff increase originally planned for October 15 – and further open its financial markets. However, it is still facing the prospect of the US imposing a new 15 per cent tariff on about US$160 billion worth of its goods on December 15.

Source: SCMP

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Bangladesh’s textile industry works towards becoming more eco-friendly

The world’s second-largest garment exporter, Bangladesh, is trying to introduce greener alternatives in textile production. The attempt could help the country secure its position in the international market. More than 100 garment factories in Bangladesh have recently received the "green building" certificate from the United States Green Building Council (USGBC), an NGO that assesses environmental issues of commercial and residential settlements. Around 500 more manufacturers are waiting for their certificates, according to Bangladesh Garment Manufacturers and Exporters Association (BGMEA). These efforts to make the industry more eco-friendly are expected to secure Bangladesh's apparel and textile exports a competitive place in the global market.

What makes a factory building green?

A "green" building contributes to climate protection by lowering its carbon emissions, using renewable energy, reducing groundwater usage, using recyclable material and growing plants and trees in its premises, Nazli Hossain, an architect working with USGBC Bangladesh told DW. Therefore, in order to be declared eco-friendly, a building must contribute to nine different aspects that encourage sustainability. These are location and transportation, sustainable sites, water efficiency, energy and atmosphere, materials and resources, indoor environment quality and innovation in design. Based on how companies rate in these aspects, the USGBC awards a "green building" certificate in four categories, including platinum, followed by gold and silver, and a basic category known as "certified."

Eco-friendly and competitive

Depending on size of a factory, establishing green infrastructure requires 20 to 25% percent additional investment compared to a traditional garment building, according to Bangladesh's garment exporter association. "I additionally invested 25% to earn the highest score for a platinum certificate," Mohammed Fazlul Hoq, managing director of Plummy Fashions Limited, a textile factory in Bangladesh, told DW. Additionally, the demand for eco-friendly fashion is also getting bigger and although "green investments" do not produce immediate returns, there is a need to meet this demand, Faisal Samad, a senior official at the garment exporter association told DW.

The dark side of fashion

Factories in Bangladesh are notorious for their low level of safety and poor rights for workers. In 2013, a multi-storied garment manufacturing unit at Rana Plaza in Dhaka collapsed,killing over 1,000 workers. A year before, 112 people died in a factory fire near the capital, Dhaka. The incidents generated huge international attention, together with the demand for immediate action to ensure safety standards in the country's apparel sector. Plummy Fashions' Fazlul Hoq is aware of the close scrutiny Bangladesh's factories are subjected to and believes that an additional "green" certificate may help the country's factories become more competitive in the global market. Abdul Matin, General Secretary of Bangladesh Paribesh Andolon (Bangladesh Environment Movement) feels that the introduction of green buildings in the garment industry would definitely contribute to climate protection, but factory owners need to treat effluents effectively as well. He urges textile entrepreneurs to set up waste treatment plants in every factory to reduce pollution.

Source: Deutsche Welle

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Rent-seeking policies bite textile industry

Policy makers have no clue as to why our textile industry is weaker than other regional economies. One reason is the inability of the industry to upgrade technology, the other are the flawed government policies that have denied textiles the domestic market. We all know that our textile industry is operating below its installed capacity. Almost 65 percent of what it produces is exported, while 35 percent is consumed in the local market. The 35 percent local market share covers only 50 percent of the total domestic uptake of textiles. It has the capacity to produce more, but there is no market for its products. Pakistan’s competitiveness is the reason for limited global market but it has been denied major chunk of domestic market because of rent seeking policies that allow import of used clothing, under-invoiced garments, and smuggled textile range from fabric to home textiles and apparel. Let us take a look at the used clothing imports. It might surprise many that Pakistan is the largest importer of used clothing in the world. In 2018, total global worn cloth trade was $4,017 million. Pakistan’s share in global worn cloth imports was 7.0 percent of the total or $283 million. India that is seven times larger in population imported worn clothing worth $93 million only. This is three times less than worn clothing imports by Pakistan. The number of poor living in India is higher than the total population of Pakistan. Still their worn clothes import was very low. Even this import fulfilled the needs of the poor population of India. No one among the planners probed the reason for such high imports. The industry has been screaming since last 10 years that stock lots of fabrics and new garments are imported under the garb of used or worn clothing. This has many times been proved as well because whenever the Federal Board of Revenue (FBR) thoroughly inspected the worn clothing consignments, it found that besides used clothes the consignment contained fabric and new garments as well. These lots are imported at worn clothes prices and are cleared as such as well. The local textile manufacturers dare not produce many types of fabrics for local market because of these stock lots imported under the garb of worn clothing. It is strange that planners have not taken notice of this malpractice. The bureaucracy would not curb this practice on its own because they are partners in crime. Global average of clothing used by an individual is 12.5kg per annum. It is much higher in advanced countries. A study by All Pakistan Textile Mills Association (APTMA) reveals that total fabric consumption was 3,751 million kg. This includes imported cotton and manmade fibres. Out of this 2,441 million kg (65 percent) of fibre is exported in textile products. The balance 1,310 million kg of fibre is used domestically. This accounts for 6.3kg on per capital basis. The remaining 6.2 kg (total per capita fibre consumption is 12.5kg) comes from abroad. Official import of textile and clothing (though heavily under-invoiced) is equivalent to 341 million kg of fibre. On per capita basis, its share comes to 1.6kg. Official worn clothing import is equivalent to 443 million kg which means its share in total 12.5kg per capita consumption is 2.1kg. Another 517 million kg fibre is imported informally in shape of clothing and other textile products. This is equivalent to consumption of 2.5kg per capita. Informal trade is through our porous borders and from Afghan Transit Trade. It is worth noting that Afghan smugglers do not hide their smuggling activities. In fact, an announcement is daily made from a mosque in central Kabul that informs public that such and such person is going to Dubai or Hong Kong and anyone wishing to import any item may deposit the advance with them. These goods are booked under Afghan Transit Trade. The goods are unloaded in Afghanistan and then brought by reliable couriers though our porous border, of course with the connivance of Pakistani officials. It is worth noting that the consumption of Chinese and Indian textile products is over 60 percent in their own countries. This is the reason that even in global recessions their textile industries survive. Our industry caves in the moment global textiles come under pressure.

Source: The News

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China textile group launched to bolster garment sector

A new association was launched on Saturday to boost the Kingdom’s garment industry, one of the most important engines of economic growth in the country. China Textile Association in Cambodia (CTAC) will provide legal advice to investors and those considering to invest as well as liaise with the government, public officials said at the event.

CTAC’s services will particularly target Chinese investors.

Speaking at CTAC’s launch on Saturday, Minister of Industry and Handicrafts Cham Prasidh said the association will be an important partner to the government in lifting the garment and textile industry. “We hope that the association will help attract investment in garments and related industries. We are ready to help and facilitate your investment in Cambodia,” he told attendees at the event. Cambodia has 663 factories. Of these, 520 manufacture garments, while 83 make footwear. The rest produce bags. The industry employs about 800,000 Cambodians, 80 percent of whom are women, according to the Ministry of Industry and Handicrafts. A report last year from the National Bank of Cambodia showed that Cambodia’s garments and footwear exports were valued at $10 billion, up 24 percent from 2017’s $8 billion. The majority of buyers are in the European Union and the United States. At last week’s event, Minister Prasidh urged investors to consider exporting to new markets, including Canada, New Zealand, Australia, Japan, and Korea. According to the minister, Cambodia has the fifth-highest garment sector minimum wage in Asean. Cambodia’s minimum wage for the garment sector is $182 per month but it will be raised to $190 next year. Research by Dezan Shira & Associates shows that the garment industry is essentially dominated by foreign companies, particularly from China, Hong Kong, Singapore, Malaysia, and South Korea. “In regard to foreign-owned garments firms or brand names, these have benefited Cambodia’s industry and created important channels into the global value chain,” it said.

Source: Khmer Times

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EU nations agree to Brexit extension until January 31: Donald Tusk

"The EU27 has agreed that it will accept the UK's request for a Brexit flextension until 31 January 2020," Tusk said in a tweet. The European Union on Monday agreed a 3-month flexible delay to departure from the bloc as Prime Minister Boris Johnson pushes for an election after opponents forced him to request an extension he had vowed never to ask for. Just three days before the United Kingdom is due to leave the EU on Oct. 31 at 2300 GMT, Brexit is hanging in the balance as British politicians are no closer to reaching a consensus on how, when or even if the divorce should take place. Johnson, who became prime minister by pledging - "do or die" - to deliver Brexit on Oct. 31, was driven into requesting a postponement after he was defeated in parliament over the sequencing of the ratification of his divorce deal. The 27 countries that will remain in the EU after Brexit agreed on Monday to put off Brexit until the end of January with an earlier departure possible should the faction-ridden UK parliament ratify their separation deal. "The EU27 has agreed that it will accept the UK's request for a Brexit 'flextension' until 31 January 2020," European Council President Donald Tusk said in a tweet, referring to the idea of a "flexible extension".But EU member states will need Britain to formally respond to its offer of a 3-month delay to Brexit before launching a "written procedure" whereby governments will have 24 hours to accept or reject the delay. "We can only launch the written procedure when we have the agreement of the UK government on the text," said a senior EU official. Two senior EU diplomats confirmed that the written procedure period agreed was 24 hours, effective from the time London accepts the offer of a Brexit delay from Oct. 31 to Jan. 31. Britain's departure has already been delayed twice - from March 29 and April 12 - after Johnson's predecessor, Theresa May, failed three times to get her deal ratified by parliament. With British politics still paralysed over carrying out Brexit 3-1/2 years after a 52%-48% referendum vote in favour of Leave, Johnson is demanding parliament approve an election on Dec. 12 in return for more time to adopt his deal. But he needs the support of two-thirds of the 650 lawmakers for a new election. A House of Commons vote is due later on Monday.

"FLEXTENSION"

The EU, forged from the ruins of World War Two as a way to prevent another devastating conflict in Europe, is fatigued by Britain's Brexit crisis but keen not to be held responsible for an economically tumultuous "no-deal" Brexit. French President Emmanuel Macron had been the main hurdle to an extension, arguing there had to be a good reason for a delay and that the British needed to break their own political deadlock. But a source close to Macron said the prospect of an election in Britain had strengthened significantly. The source stressed that the third Brexit delay would come with conditions, including a refusal to renegotiate the divorce agreement and giving a green light to other EU countries to meet without Britain to discuss the bloc's future. The latest delay plan envisages that Britain could be out on Dec. 1 or Jan. 1 should parliament ratify the agreement in November or December, respectively, according to diplomats who deal with Brexit in Brussels. The EU will state that the extension, the third granted so Britain can sort out the details of its departure, will not be used to renegotiate the divorce treaty again, and that London should not impede other essential work by the EU on projects ranging from budgets to climate policies.

Source: Reuters

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Pakistan: Big drop in industrial production

The information on the Quantum Index of Manufacturing (QIM) for the month of August 2019 has just been released by the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics. This has raised alarm bells. There has been a sizeable drop in production by the large-scale manufacturing sector of 7 percent in August. Cumulatively, over the first two months of the current year the fall is 6 percent. The represents a process of continuing and increasing decline since June 2018. During the first quarter of 2018-19, the overall level of production remained, more or less, constant. The next quarter saw a fall of 3 percent followed by the drop of 4.5 percent in the next two quarters. Now, already in the first two months of the first quarter of 2019-20 we have seen an even bigger decline of 6 percent. Clearly, the industrial sector is losing more and more of its momentum with the passage of time. A stage has now been reached when we have the makings of a serious industrial crisis in the country. The fall in industrial production is not only deep but also very widespread. Out of the 15 industry groups, 11 have experienced negative growth in August, leading to an overall decline in output by the sector of 7 percent. These eleven industrial groups have a combined weight of 93 percent in the QIM. The industry which has been hit most severely is automobiles. It has a weight of almost 5 percent in the index. Sales had been buoyant in previous years and there was the prospect of entry of new firms. Also, the return on equity had been exceptionally high. The downturn has been caused by a crash in sales due to the big jump in prices and a consequential drop in production. The output of cars is down by 32 percent, of trucks by 59 percent and of motor cycles by over 20 percent. Apparently, the number of shifts operated has been reduced drastically. The other big industries which have shown large declines of above 10 percent in output are food, beverages and tobacco, coke and petroleum products, pharmaceuticals and iron and steel products. Somewhat smaller falls in production have been experienced by industries like chemicals, cement, leather products and paper and board. The output of the largest sector, textiles, with a weight of 21 percent has remained, more or less, unchanged. Only three industries, viz., fertilizer, electronics and engineering products have shown big increases in output ranging from 16 percent in fertilizer to 38 percent in electronics. Two fundamental questions need to be asked. Why has such a precipitate decline occurred in the sector when one of the major constraints to higher production in the form of power loadshedding has largely been removed? If this slump in manufacturing persists what is the likely impact on the economy as a whole in terms of GDP growth, employment and tax revenues? There are two common factors which have hit most industries and some special factors that have affected particular industries. The first major factor which has hit all industries is the quantum jump in electricity and gas tariffs. These have gone up significantly by 16 percent and 30 percent respectively. Second, there has been a big hike in interest rates which has raised the cost of working capital and hit the liquidity position of firms. It has also reduced the demand for consumer credit. Third, there has been an escalation in tax rates in the Federal Budget of 2019-20 which has hit a number of industries like textiles, vegetable ghee, sugar, automobiles, etc. The large rupee devaluation ought to have had an ambiguous impact. On the negative side it has led to a big increase in the cost of imported inputs and put pressure on prices. However, on the positive side it should have provided a boost to both export-oriented and import substituting industries. Unfortunately, the two major exporting industries of textiles and leather products have shown no increase in production. In the former industry, exports during July and August rose by 2 percent in quantitative terms in the case of cotton yarn but fell by 9 percent in the case of cotton cloth. Exports of leather products showed big increases, with the export of leather garments rising by 32 percent; leather gloves by 18 percent and footwear by almost 40 percent. However, this has been largely neutralized by a big drop in domestic sales. Import-substituting industries ought to have benefited from the devaluation. Instead, production of iron and steel is down by 17 percent, of petroleum products by 18 percent, of pharmaceuticals by 14 percent, of chemicals by 8 percent and of paper and board by 4 percent. Clearly, cost push factors have deprived these industries of the competitive edge. However, three import substituting industries have shown visible progress with quantum increases in output. These include fertilizers with increased output of 16 percent, electronics with a rise of 38 percent and engineering products of 23 percent. The fertilizer industry has been facilitated by increased access and lower cost of LNG. We turn next to the broader consequences of the slump in industrial output. The large-scale manufacturing sector has strong backward and forward linkages with the respect of the economy. The small-scale manufacturing sector provides inputs to its large-scale counterpart. This is evident, for example, in the production of auto parts for the automobile industry. There are also strong forward linkages with large sectors like wholesale and retail trade and transport and communications. Based on an input-output analysis, if the fall in large-scale manufacturing were to persist at 6 percent, then the overall indirect impact on the GDP growth rate is estimated at 0.8 percent. This is on top of the direct impact of approximately 0.5 percent. Consequently, the growth rate of the economy could be reduced by almost 1.3 percent. This will make the realization of even the modest GDP growth rate target in 2019-20 of 2.4 percent more difficult. Turning to the impact on employment, this could also be sizeable. The large-scale manufacturing sector currently employs almost 4 million workers. A proportionate impact with respect to the fall in output could reduce employment in the sector by almost 240,000. The impact on other sectors could be over 220,000. Consequently, a persistent fall of 6 percent in industrial output could be accompanied by a fall in employment of almost half a million. The retrenchment of workers would reduce demand for consumer goods and thereby affect industrial production. In effect, the economy could be in a vicious cycle. Then there is the negative impact on tax revenues. A first estimate is that the large-scale manufacturing sector contributes almost 70 percent to Federal tax revenues. If the tax base falls in real terms by 6 percent and the inflation in ex-factory prices is 12 percent, as is the case currently, then the increase in the nominal tax base will be only 6 percent. It may be smaller because two industries, namely, petroleum refining and automobiles, which contribute disproportionately to tax revenues have been very badly hit. Altogether, there is the early warning of an industrial crisis and of adverse trends in the economy as a whole. There is no other option but to soften the impact of adverse measures as soon as some policy space becomes available. This will include a return to lower interest rates; rationalization of the tax system and more favored treatment of the export-oriented industries in the country. Otherwise, there is the prospect of a further plummeting of the GDP growth rate, rise in unemployment and a big shortfall in tax revenues.

Source: Business Recorder

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Italy eyes stronger economic ties with Bangladesh

Italian Foreign Ministry officials held talks here on Monday with Bangladesh''s Foreign Minister Abdul Momen in a bid to boost bilateral economic relations, the Foreign Ministry said in a statement on Monday. Several Italian companies, especially in the textiles sectors, have operations in Bangladesh, and the government hopes that bilateral business ties can be "intensified", Foreign Undersecretary Manlio Di Di Stefano noted during his meeting with Momen, according to the statement. Italian defence companies are also taking part in competitive tenders for major contracts in Bangladesh, and the government hopes they will be successful, he added. Di Stefano acknowledged the positive contribution that the Bengali diaspora (140,000 people, the largest community in continental Europe) makes to the Italian economy and society, according to the statement. Di Stefano also praised the government of Bangladesh''s humanitarian response to the Rohingya refugee crisis. In what has become Asia''s biggest refugee crisis in decades, some 700,000 Rohinghya Muslims have fled from Myanmar''s Rakhine state since 2017 and taken shelter in neighbouring Bangladesh. A political solution to the Rohingya refugee crisis must be found and "responsibilities for the ongoing tragedy need to be to established," Di Stefano and Momen agreed. Allegations of killings, torture, arson and rape of Rohingya civilians by Myanmar security services and pro-government vigilante mobs have been described as possible genocide by the UN.

Source: Outlook India

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APTMA, EU to put joint efforts for uplift of textile industry

Chairman All Pakistan Textile Mills Association (APTMA) Punjab Adil Bashir has recently announced to work with the European Union (EU) on all the initiatives to ensure sustainability and growth of the textile industry in Pakistan. He was speaking on the occasion of the visit of the EU’s Ambassador Designate to Pakistan Androulla Kaminara to the APTMA Punjab office here. Chairman APTMA made a detailed presentation on the Association and highlighted that its members are corporate entities compliant to all social standards while producing goods predominantly meant for exports. He said the APTMA has taken an active part in securing of EU’s GSP+ status for Pakistan in 2014 to widen the market access available e to Pakistan. Since the grant of GSP Plus status in 2014, Adil Bashir added, the exports of Pakistan to the EU have increased by 62%. In the early years of the facility, Pakistan’s exports to the EU witnessed significant growth but it has become stagnant at 5514 Million Euros for the last three years. He said the prime reason was relocation of buying houses of major retailers and brands to other competing countries besides the high cost of manufacturing in Pakistan. However, he stressed, the present government has taken special measures to encourage industrialization and exports, and the business scenario is changing fast in the country. APTMA along with the federal government is formulating a long term textile policy to set direction for sustainability and growth of Pakistan’s textile sector, he added. The Chairman APTMA said the prospective investors are keenly looking forward to undertake BMR, expansions, and Greenfield investment projects in all sub sectors of the textile value chain subject to the availability of enabling environment. He said the industry has envisaged to double textile and clothing exports to US $ 26 billion in next 5 years with an investment of US $ 7 billion by setting up 1000 garmenting plants which would result in the creation of direct job opportunities for one million workforce. In the garments industry, he added, the predominant majority of the industry workforce is women, which would also bring about a gender-balance in the workforce and have a salutary effect. Adil Bashir said the GSP+ regime calls for Pakistan to fully implement its commitments under 27 international conventions on human rights, good governance, labor, and environmental standards. APTMA has undertaken a number of sustainability initiatives to keep the textile industry at par with global standards and expectations, he added. The visiting envoy said the textile industry of Pakistan needs to prepare itself for meeting the challenges of sustaining GSP Plus status so as to avail the opportunities of increasing exports to the EU. The global consumer perception has completely changed and it has become more conscious to socially responsible for environment-friendly products. There is no doubt that Pakistan has vast potential to double its exports, however, the perception management is the key for the government and industry to maintain and sustain, she added.

Source: Pakistan Observer

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Turkey will lose big with no-deal Brexit - columnist

The threat of Britain’s hard exit from the European Union looms large over Turkey, which stands to lose access to its second-largest export market, independent news site Gazete Duvar said on Sunday. Turkey’s autos, textiles and appliances face the biggest risk if Britain ultimately leaves the bloc without trade arrangements, effectively wiping out some $2.4 billion (£2.2 billion) of the country’s $3.7 billion (£2.8 billion) trade surplus with Britain, if there is a so-called hard, or no-deal Brexit, energy policy expert Mühdan Sağlam said in an article. "Turkey is one of the countries that will feel the most pain from a Brexit without any special deals," Sağlam said. Exports are vital to Turkey’s economy as it recovers from the recession after last year’s currency crisis knocked some 30 percent off the value of the lira, according to the expert. Britain’s departure from the bloc without a replacement trade deal would mean that Turkey, covered by the EU’s customs union, would lose open access to the British market considering World Trade Organization's rules on bilateral trade, Sağlam said.

Source: Avhal

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