The Synthetic & Rayon Textiles Export Promotion Council

MARKET WATCH 03 JUNE, 2020

 

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Future Ready: Will get growth back, reforms on track, says PM Modi

Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Tuesday expressed his strong resolve to regain the economy’s growth momentum and asked for industry inputs for ‘more structural reforms’ his government is determined to undertake, in its effort to facilitate the country’s ‘growth-oriented, big take-off’. “For us the meaning of reforms is the boldness to take decisions and persist with them till the logical end,” Modi said, addressing the Confederation of Indian Industry’s 125th annual session, via video conference. Listing out the steps taken by his governments over the years like the insolvency code, GST and bank mergers to bolster the economy’s productive capacity and the reform measures announced recently in the areas of agriculture produce marketing and coal mining, Modi said these long-pending reforms were among the ones the country appeared to have abandoned due to their apparent intractability. The prime minister asserted: “Yes, we will definitely get our growth back… India will get its growth back”. Modi, accused by many analysts of being content with incrementalism in his approach to reforms during the tenure of his first government, has clearly changed tack. In the backdrop of the economic expansion rate having plunged to a 11-year low of 4.2% in 2019-20, and even the RBI prognosticating the growth to be in the negative territory in the current financial year, Modi clung tenaciously to his pledge to resort to “systematic, planned, inter-connected and integrated” reforms to find a way out of the current morass. Land and labour market reforms are at the top of Corporate India’s wish-list, as it looks forward to an economic climate for them to resume long-dried-up investments. Stating that “every sector has to be made future-ready”, Modi said his government was wedded to create an ‘encouraging eco-system’ for private firms and entrepreneurs, through continuous decisions and steps. “Corona may have slowed our speed (of growth) but India has now moved ahead from lockdown with the phase one of unlock. Unlock Phase-1 has reopened a large part of the economy,” he said. According to him, intent, inclusion, investment, infrastructure and innovation are crucial for India to revert back to a high-growth trajectory. The prime minister’s comments come at a time when the country’s fiscal situation has deteriorated and the government is struggling to give support to the economy via own spending, while also incentivising the players in the economy through what it calls Atmanirbhar Bharat package consisting mainly of supply side steps. Advocating the concept of Make-for-the-World, Modi said: “the world is looking for a trusted, reliable partner. India has that potential, strength and ability”. He noted that while battling corona at home, India helped over 150 countries with medical supplies. To boost manufacturing and job creation, Modi said the government has identified priority sectors such as furniture, air conditioners, leather and footwear for special attention. India imports about 30% of its air-conditioner requirements while the country is not a leading player in world markets export of leather and footwear despite being the second largest producer. Moody’s Investors Service on Monday trimmed India’s sovereign rating by a notch to the lowest investment grade of Baa-3 and retained the “negative” outlook, giving effect to earlier warnings of a downgrade if the country’s fiscal metrics “weaken materially” in the wake of the Covid-19 pandemic.  Since the agency had warned of downgrade on May 8, the Centre unveiled an economic stimulus package of close to Rs 21 lakh crore (barely 10% of which was additional budgetary cost) and the Centre’s fiscal deficit in FY20 was revealed to be 4.6% of GDP, the highest level since FY13. The fiscal deficits of both the Centre and states are expected to rise substantially in FY21, most likely to double-digit levels, given the economic slump and continued reliance on government spending to revive the economy and meet the extra spending obligations related to Covid-19.  Moody’s expects India’s real GDP growth to contract by 4% in FY21 due to the shock from the coronavirus pandemic and related lockdown measures, followed by 8.7% growth in the next fiscal and closer to 6% thereafter. It forecasts the country’s debt burden to rise to about 84% of GDP in FY21, indicating fiscal stress. Crisil has said recently that Covid-19 pandemic would likely inflict a 10% permanent loss to real GDP, so a catch-up to the pre-crisis trend level of GDP won’t be possible over the next three fiscal years. After the global financial crisis, a sharp growth spurt helped catch up with the trend within two years. GDP grew 8.2% on average in the two fiscals following the global financial crisis. Massive fiscal spending, monetary easing and swift global recovery played a role in a V-shaped recovery then. “To catch up would (now) require average GDP growth to surge to 11% over the next three fiscals, something that has never happened before,” Crisil wrote.

Source: Financial Express

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Express Expressions with Smriti Irani: India has capability to make world class products

Union Minister for Women and Child Development and Textiles Smriti Irani said India can make world-class products at a competitive price. Union Minister for Women and Child Development and Textiles Smriti Irani said India can make world-class products at a competitive price. Deep engagement with officials at the state and district levels has yielded positive results, she said in a conversation with Prabhu Chawla, Editorial Director, The New Indian Express and author and senior journalist Kaveree  Bamzai on TNIE’s Expressions, a series of live webcasts with people who matter. Women across classes have shouldered a lot of the burden during the pandemic. Can you take us through some of the initiatives you have taken in the past two months, especially for domestic violence — one of the biggest issues women faced?  We were working to ensure that the one-stop crisis centres across the country were functional and never shut their doors, irrespective of the country being in lockdown. We reached out to every one-stop centre. Similarly, we engaged with all child care centres and women’s homes across the country to ensure that the people living in those homes are safe and have access to essential commodities. We also ensured that the anganwadis, which are at the frontline, continued to function. Even if anganwadis were shut, the take-home rations were delivered at the doorstep. In the lockdown, we had 9 crore female beneficiaries who received the rations at the doorstep.

How do you take the incident of anganwadi workers being beaten away?  

The PM has been very vocal not only in terms of his words but also his action that the breakdown of law and order will not be accepted by the Centre. We have taken a Cabinet decision to protect frontline workers as well. There was also a public outrage over it. During the COVID-19 crisis, we saw a cohesiveness in the PM’s approach and the people’s response.

Have cases of child abuse and violence against women gone up?

When COVID-19 hit India, there was a lot of talks — and it came from international agencies — that across the world 80 per cent women are getting beaten at home. When we asked for validated figures, they said this is just a supposition. When we tracked the numbers, we found that they have gone down. But because it is an evolving situation, it would be premature for me to make a generic statement. What have we achieved in the journey from Make in India to ‘Atmanirbhar Bharat’? We studied 580 export-import lines and we alerted the revenue department on increasing the import duties. In light of Covid-19, we tried to figure out how we can enhance the opportunities for local artisans. We coordinated with self-help groups for making face covers which are being locally consumed. I am engaged in further discussions on the textile ministry with the ministries of finance and commerce which I cannot mention right now.

Will the existing textile units have to reinvented for new kinds of products?

They have themselves adapted to new market needs.

Source: Mint Live

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Industries welcome revised definition for MSMEs

Industries in Coimbatore and Tiruppur districts have welcomed the revised definition for Micro, Small and Medium Enterprises (MSME) classification. According to Cotton Textiles Export Promotion Council chairman KV Srinivasan, the enhancement in turnover and investment limits for medium enterprises is a positive step. The cabinet has decided to exclude export turnover from the turnover limits for MSMEs. This is a welcome decision for textile exporters as many of them will be eligible for 5 % interest equalisation scheme benefits. Apparel Export Promotion Council chairman A. Sakthivel said the turnover of exporting units depended on foreign exchange rates. Rupee value has weakened continuously for the last 10 years. The decision to exclude export turnover will strengthen the MSME sector and propel exports. T. Rajkumar, chairman of Confederation of Indian Textile Industry, said that with the revised definition, even small weaving mills will be classified as MSMEs. This will benefit the garment manufacturers too. Decision to create ₹4000 crore Distressed Asset Fund will help the weaker MSMEs that are struggling due to NPA norms. According to Southern India Mills’ Association chairman Ashwin Chandran, several segments of the textile value chain - power looms, handlooms, knitting, processing, embroidery, garment, etc - that do job works will be encouraged to consolidate and modernise their facilities. He urged the government to further consider modifying the definition to investment or turnover from the existing investment and turnover limits specified.  Tiruppur Exporters’ Association president Raja M. Shanmugham said the upward revision of investment and turnover limits for medium scale units will benefit the garment exporting units in Tiruppur and attract investments.  The Railways Suppliers’ Association in Coimbatore opposed the change in definition saying micro and small-scale units will stand to lose, especially in getting orders from public sector undertakings.

Source: The Hindu

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Enhancement of turnover limit of MSME sector to help exporters

Federation of Indian Export Organisations (FIEO) President Sharad Kumar Saraf said that exclusion of exports turnover from total turnover will help in the internationalisation of MSMEs and will bring their focus on exports. The Indian government's decision to increase the turnover limit for medium units from Rs 100 crore to Rs 250 crore will help infuse technology and promote automation in certain sectors, and boost outbound shipments, Indian exporters said. Federation of Indian Export Organisations (FIEO) President Sharad Kumar Saraf said that exclusion of exports turnover from total turnover will help in the internationalisation of MSMEs, and will bring their focus on exports. The cabinet on Monday approved further increasing the limit for medium manufacturing and service units to Rs 50 crore of investment, and Rs 250 crore of turnover. The turnover with respect to exports will not be counted in the limits of turnover for any category of MSME units whether micro, small, or medium. "The move is most pragmatic, and will also infuse technology as in certain sectors, margins are so low that enhancement in investment in plant and machinery would not have been of much use unless accompanied by an increase in the turnover limit to Rs 250 crore. Such a move will also bring automation of certain processes which are required for competitive manufacturing," he added. Hailing the decisions on MSME sector, financial advisory firm Findoc Group MD Hemant Sood said that MSMEs are the backbone of the Indian economy and the highest employer of skilled labour. "The decision by the government to allow the listing of MSMEs will help them in the longer term and become a growth engine for their revival," Sood said. Apparel Export Promotion Council (AEPC) Chairman A Sakthivel also said that as the exporters' turnover depends upon the foreign exchange rates, and since rupee value has continuously weakened for the last 10 years, the council had requested the government to remove the turnover criterion for defining MSMEs in the exports sector. "Today's decision will propel India's exports and strengthen the MSME sector, which is the key to India becoming self-reliant. Further, the decisions to allow MSMEs get listed and the provision of distressed asset fund for MSMEs will give a major stimulus to the sector, job generation, and revival of the economy," Sakthivel said. The enhancement in the investment and turnover limits for medium-sized enterprises will help in increasing exports of textiles by making them more competitive in the global markets, the Cotton Textiles Export Promotion Council (TEXPROCIL) said. TEXPROCIL Chairman K V Srinivasan said this is a welcome decision as a large number of exporters in the textiles sector can now be classified as MSMEs under the new criteria, and will be eligible to get all the benefits extended to the MSMEs, including five percent interest equalisation scheme. He said that these decisions will lead to an increase in exports of textiles by making them more competitive in the global market, which in turn will lead to employment generation.

Source: Your Story

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Revive manufacturing, diversify exports: Indian minister

India’s minister for commerce and industry and railways Piyush Goyal recently said the three key ways to raise the country’s exports are to revive manufacturing, diversify the export basket and find newer and more accepting markets. He was speaking at the Digital Summit on Exports organised by the Confederation of Indian Industry (CII) and the EXIM Bank of India.  The ‘AatmaNirbhar Bharat’ mission, he said, is not just about greater self-reliance, but also engaging with the world from a position of strength, according to an official release.  He said India should be seen as a dependable partner and reliable friend in the world market, particularly when the global supply chains are witnessing shifts.  CII launched the Taskforce on Enhancing Exports through integration into the Global Value Chains (GVCs). The minister committed to working closely with the taskforce and take action where necessary for the benefit of industry.

Source : Fibre2fashion

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Surat's textile market reopens amid #Unlock1

Surat (Gujarat) [India], June 2 (ANI): The textile market in Surat reopened on Tuesday amid relaxations in the coronavirus lockdown, shopkeepers are taking all precautionary measures to contain the spread of COVID-19 here. Speaking to ANI, Dinesh Katariya, a businessman said, "All precautionary measures have been taken. We have installed automatic hand sanitisers, sanitising tunnels. Thermometer guns are being used to check temperature”. “We are happy that the market has resumed but at the same time, we are extremely scared as we still have to fight against COVID-19. Not even 50 percent shops have opened here yet," he added. The industry has already faced a loss of about Rs 700 crores weekly in the past two and half months and their businessmen are still going to suffer losses in the coming months, he claimed. A large number of people hailing from across the country, work at the textile industry here but due to COVID-19 crisis, the textile industry has come to a standstill.  Lakhs of workers returned to their villages during the lockdown. However, the industry has slowly started routine operations now and is witnessing a scarcity of workers. (ANI)

Source:  Yahoo News

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Industries welcome revised definition for MSMEs

Industries in Coimbatore and Tiruppur districts have welcomed the revised definition for Micro, Small and Medium Enterprises (MSME) classification. According to Cotton Textiles Export Promotion Council chairman KV Srinivasan, the enhancement in turnover and investment limits for medium enterprises is a positive step. The cabinet has decided to exclude export turnover from the turnover limits for MSMEs. This is a welcome decision for textile exporters as many of them will be eligible for 5 % interest equalisation scheme benefits.  Apparel Export Promotion Council chairman A. Sakthivel said the turnover of exporting units depended on foreign exchange rates. Rupee value has weakened continuously for the last 10 years. The decision to exclude export turnover will strengthen the MSME sector and propel exports. T. Rajkumar, chairman of Confederation of Indian Textile Industry, said that with the revised definition, even small weaving mills will be classified as MSMEs. This will benefit the garment manufacturers too. Decision to create ₹4000 crore Distressed Asset Fund will help the weaker MSMEs that are struggling due to NPA norms.  According to Southern India Mills’ Association chairman Ashwin Chandran, several segments of the textile value chain - power looms, handlooms, knitting, processing, embroidery, garment, etc - that do job works will be encouraged to consolidate and modernise their facilities. He urged the government to further consider modifying the definition to investment or turnover from the existing investment and turnover limits specified.  Tiruppur Exporters’ Association president Raja M. Shanmugham said the upward revision of investment and turnover limits for medium scale units will benefit the garment exporting units in Tiruppur and attract investments.  The Railways Suppliers’ Association in Coimbatore opposed the change in definition saying micro and small-scale units will stand to lose, especially in getting orders from public sector undertakings.

Source: Fibre2fashion

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Hike in MSME limits is relief for textile industry: SIMA

Considerably increasing the investment and sales turnover thresholds for MSMEs will significantly benefit various segments of textile value chain, The Southern India Mills’ Association (SIMA) has said. It has also welcomed the increase in minimum support price (MSP) of cotton as it would benefit cotton farmers and sustain the area under cotton cultivation.  The government has focused on farmers and MSMEs under its Atmanirbhar Bharat Abhiyan, a slew of financial relief measures to enable the country to tide over the unprecedented economic crisis being posed due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Subsequently, the Cabinet Committee has now announced further relief measures focusing on farmers and MSMEs and also hiking the MSP for 14 kharif crops including cotton. Prior to the recently announced changes, the investment limit for a medium sized industry was only ₹10 crore when compared to the new limit of ₹50 crore. Increasing the sales turnover limit to ₹250 crore from the recently announced turnover of ₹100 crore, while excluding export sales turnover from this calculation, would greatly benefit the highly labour-intensive and fragmented textiles and clothing industry, SIMA chairman Ashwin Chandran said in a press release. "Since most of the decentralised sectors, especially powerloom, handloom, knitting, processing, embroidery, garmenting and made-up segments operate on job work basis and where traders play a major role, the new definitions would encourage consolidation and modernisation of the decentralised sectors. This will improve economies of scale, help boost exports and also help to grow the domestic textile and clothing industry," Chandran said. He also welcomed the allocation of ₹4,000 crore towards distressed fund to bailout MSME units under NPA category and also allocating ₹10,000 crore fund on fund to enable the high performing MSME units to get listed in the stock market and gain advantage.  He, however, appealed to the Government to consider modifying the definition of MSMEs from “investment and turnover basis” to “investment or turnover basis” to further extend the benefits to the capital-intensive sectors of the textile industry viz spinning, weaving, processing and technical textiles. "This will encourage modernisation and increase scale of operation so that these segments can improve their global competitiveness."  SIMA chairman also welcomed the MSP increase of 4.75 per cent for medium staple cotton and 4.95 per cent for long staple cotton that would greatly benefit the cotton farmers and sustain the area under cotton cultivation. The minimum support price for seed cotton (kapas) for medium staple has been increased from ₹5,255 per quintal to ₹5,515 per quintal. For long staple, it has been increased from ₹5,502 to ₹5,825 per quintal. "Increasing the minimum support price is not a sustainable solution and the Government needs to focus on bringing back the Technology Mission on Cotton in a revised format, to increase the productivity which is half that of other major cotton producing countries, improve quality by reducing contamination and trash cotton by adopting global best practices," said Chandran.  He also pointed out that with the current market price for cotton and expected accumulation of stocks due to COVID-19, the Government would need to allocate huge funds for the forthcoming cotton season as the country would produce at least 25 per cent higher than the domestic requirement, apart from a carryover of 125 to 150 lakh bales of closing stock in the current season.

Source:  Fibre2fashion

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Reviving demand is key to India’s economic recovery

The real estate and the automobile industry have more than 350 upstream and downstream linkages. Any revival here will release a cascading stream of benefits in all other interlinked segments With the entire nation under lockdown for over two months, demand has slumped. Almost every sector, be it in services or manufacturing, has reported a drastic plunge in demand. In April, the automotive industry reported no sales whatsoever. Some of the biggest engines of economic growth, such as realty and construction, hospitality, aviation, all reported virtually no activity. Apart from healthcare and essential services, the only industry that kept working was agriculture. This is the saving grace because the largest chunk of manpower in India is employed in the agricultural sector. We have seen the recession of 2008 where millions were unemployed, companies were reluctant to invest, and factories had fallen silent. Consumer demand was stagnant. But, in no time, the demand was gushing. A handful of companies were doing exponentially better than their competitors. They enjoyed runaway growth, premium pricing, and extraordinary customer loyalty. Companies started growing, profits were robust, and customers were loyal because these companies continued business.  We must not over-react to the present situation and take stern decisions that eventually break our businesses. It is very important to take a balanced view, without haste. It is important to be in business to ensure continuity, and we should retain our employees. So, how will the economy soar once again after the pandemic, when the crisis is deeper than the one in 2008? The economy is based on demand; Other than the necessities, demand is based on perception. The government has tried to pump liquidity in to the market; however, it is perceived that demand hasn’t come back. Demand will come back only when people feel that prices will go up, or they assume that they are getting an opportunity that they should encash les it is missed. Now, with the government pushing for liquidity and asking banks to lend, will this not bring the economy back on track? Liquidity will help industry to manufacture, but if industry doesn’t see demand, it won’t produce. Demand generation The government has been coming up with a lot of measures; however, we must agree with the fact that for an economy to revive, demand should be there. Reforms should be framed in such a manner that the industries are supported, so that employment continues. If employment continues, purchasing power will be sustained.  It is cyclical. Money needs to rotate in the market, which is crucial. Once the government starts ‘give and take’, there are immense possibilities for reviving the economy, and the government will earn more revenue than it has to give up. Banks are averse to lending in this gloomy economy. The government, in consultation with banks and industry, should structure relations in such a manner that it is lenient for all and in benefit of general public.  RBI has created a perception that it will support mutual funds, and the government has given an assurance by way of guarantee to banks. Here, banks and the government together have to work for the same goal. The Insurance Regulatory and Development Authority (IRDA) is aggressively thinking of reviving its credit insurance business. This will definitely help the banks, which will be safeguarded and, thus, encouraged to lend. The government is making a lot of effort, but money is not reaching the people on the street and purchasing power isn’t going up.  Consider our two major industries: construction/real estate and automotive.  Construction/real estate: Banks must form a scheme for real estate where they give loans for 35-40 years, with 2-3 years moratorium. Here, RBI support will be required for giving loans for 35-40 years as there will be no matching deposits that banks will have. Currently, interest rates are already very low and there is no need to reduce. Based on a ready-reckoner rate, banks should give loans. In affordable categories, banks should not ask for more papers, but must get contribution from homebuyers or assurance from developers that banks will not be left in the lurch. Only pre-approved projects should be funded so that banks do not take any haircut. However, bank loans on EWS category should be considered as priority sector lending. The government will get GST on input material. Per square feet, at least Rs 300 will go towards GST. There is a huge unmet need in this segment, and across India, 100 crore sq-ft constructions, which translate into 20 lakh houses, will be consumed in the next 2-3 years. The government also will earn additional 5% GST on sale of these flats, which will again be about Rs 300-400 per sq-ft. If the government gives time to homebuyers to pay GST of 5% within five years in five equal instalments with 7% interest, then it will be a great help to homebuyers. Such a scheme should be made available for 6-9 months. In case homebuyers are unable to repay to the bank, then a bank can monetise the asset, or a developer will compensate to the bank. The real estate sector has a lot of NPAs. If the government pushes work, banks will be able to monetise their outstanding receivables. People in the retail segment generally do not default unless they are jobless or face any other critical/unavoidable reason, as in India self-respect in the community is valued more than anything else.  Automotive: Similarly, in the automobile industry, there can be new bank loans with margins of 25-35%, and banks must give loans up to Rs 2.5-3 lakh. It will help sales of small cars, two-wheelers and light commercial vehicles pick up. In this case, car manufacturers must give FLDG (first loss default guarantee) or will buy-back a vehicle from banks, where banks will not make any loss. In such a case, automobile manufacturers and banks both are protected. Easy loans will help people buy vehicles as public transport will likely be avoided. Automobile manufacturers should develop attractive schemes to push demand. If the government gives a waiver of tax on payment of interest for purchase of a house or a vehicle, it will be widely accepted by the borrowers and will propel demand.  Labourers have migrated, and in such a scenario the revival of real estate seems gloomy. A lot of action has been taken and labour laws are getting reformed. Now, 12-hour working shifts should start. Everyone must contribute towards economic development, and extra labour must be provided with a suitable pay package. Moreover, the government must come out with an order that all the workers have to report on a particular restart date or within 30 days of a restart date. If they do not report, action can be taken.  The real estate and the automobile industry have more than 350 upstream and downstream linkages. Any revival here will release a cascading stream of benefits in all other interlinked segments. As a result, myriad employment and entrepreneurial opportunities will be generated, and this will be key in driving a faster turnaround of the Indian economy. The prime minister’s ambitious vision of a self-reliant India, or Atmanirbhar Bharat, will then become a ground reality sooner rather than later. Everyone has to work to overcome the economic crisis. The government is a saviour, but it alone cannot solve all the problems of the people. All of us Indians need to contribute towards this.

Source: Financial Express

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Impact of Covid-19 Pandemic on Small Textile Units

The COVID-19 crisis is set to have a huge impact on small labour-intensive textile units, mostly dependent on migrant workforce. While the focus around the world right now is on food, medicine and protective gear, the pandemic has posed a serious threat to all the sectors of the economy. Economies everywhere have been predicted to hit rock bottom. The Indian textile industry faces some grave challenges: from maintaining production and addressing the need for protective clothing to coping up with the deficit due to lockdown and retain migrant labourers. Punjab, Gujarat, Maharashtra and Tamil Nadu, the hubs of textile manufacturing in India, are amongst the worst hit states by the pandemic. The industry is mostly dependent on migrant workforce from Bihar, Jharkhand Uttar Pradesh and Orissa. Due to the seriousness of the pandemic, the textile units were shut in March. The absence of wages and imminent risk to life made the migrant labourers go back to their respective native places. As reported by the scientists and doctors, the pandemic might last longer than expected and that again may pose a challenge to small textile units as migrant labourers may not return until safety can be assured to them. Unlike big companies, these smaller units are operated either manually or semi-automatically. Majority of these textile processing units function on a seasonal basis based on the availability of raw material and the demand for products. The machines installed in these units are ill spaced; hence violate the standard six-feet social distancing norm between workers. These are some of the issues that may affect the production and economic state of the small textile units:  Availability of raw material: Due to the pandemic, agriculture has also suffered. With more emphasis on food crops, cash crops are being sidelined due to decreasing demand. This will lead to lower availability of raw materials like cotton and silk. For synthetic textiles too, a similar situation has arisen as the majority of chemical units are either closed or are focussing on meeting the demand for sanitisers and essential chemicals to deal with the pandemic.

  • Transportation: Transportationis the spine of any supply chain, be it raw material or finished goods. Due to the long duration of the lockdown, transportation has severely suffered, and that has affected both established as well as small businesses. It may take awhile to repair the broken supply chain and bring production, transportation and delivery on track.
  • Cash flow: Big companies have larger turnover and profits, and so, they have a continuous cash flow unlike smaller textile units, which are more precarious. Limited sources of capital combined with low production size may lead to shutting down of many small textile units.
  • Availability of labour: Small textile units mostly rely on manual operation. Due to the pandemic and the lockdown, migrant labourers have moved back to their native places and are less likely to return soon to work. This problem is more serious for smaller textile units and this could hamper their production and overall business.

In this crisis situation, the textile industry is also motivated to contribute to the fight against coronavirus. As a result, the focus has shifted from aesthetic clothing to functional clothing that impart protective function to apparel. In the last two months, the production of personal protective equipment (PPE) kits, gloves and masks has shot up and is expected to rise further. But the production of PPE kits is still concentrated among the highly specialised manufacturing units that happen to be only 110 in number. Right now, due to increased domestic demand, India has not started exporting protective gears. Once the production rate rises and the domestic demand is met, India will soon export such items. The new mantra of ‘Aatmanirbhaeta’ (self-reliance) and ‘Be vocal about local’ given by Prime Minister Narendra Modi will hopefully boost the morale of the small textile units. His address emphasised on using more and more domestic products and brands. This on one hand will support local companies, and simultaneously will decrease dependence on foreign products. This will surely lead small textile units to recover from the losses incurred by them during the lockdown. This also poses a huge challenge for domestic brands, which have to match the quality of global brands and satisfy consumers to that extent.

Source:  Fibre2Fashion

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Covid takes heavy toll on SEZs; exports plummet 50 per cent, over a third of orders get cancelled

Units ask government to help ease movement across borders, sort out operational issues Exports from units in special economic zones (SEZs) fell over 50 per cent in April, while more than a third of the orders placed were cancelled, due to Covid-led disruptions, revealed an internal survey carried out by the Export Promotion Council for EOUs and SEZs (EPCES)……..

Source: The Hindu Business Line

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India’s lockdown strategy was faulty, economy to contract 10% this fiscal: Former finance secretary SC Garg

The former finance secretary went on to say that the 2020-21 fiscal will go down in the history of India as the year when India got way-laid from its story of three decadal outstanding growth. Former finance secretary Subhash Chandra Garg on Tuesday said the Indian economy will shrink by 10 per cent or Rs 20 lakh crore in the ongoing fiscal, the first contraction in over 40 years, due to a “faulty” COVID lockdown. Garg also said that the government’s Rs 21 lakh crore stimulus package is actually of only Rs 1.4-1.5 lakh crore or about 0.7 per cent of the country’s gross domestic product (GDP). “It is certain that India’s GDP will contract after 40 years in 2020-21,” he said in a blogpost, adding that “it also appears fairly certain that this would be a very large contraction of about 10 per cent of GDP or loss of about Rs 20 lakh crore of income”. The former finance secretary went on to say that the 2020-21 fiscal will go down in the history of India as the year when India got way-laid from its story of three decadal outstanding growth. Pointing out that India was not in the pink of economic health in 2019-20, he said, the economy grew barely by 4 per cent for the year which happens to be the lowest growth rate in last 11 years. Recently, rating agencies Fitch and Crisil drastically cut India’s economic growth forecast for the current fiscal year due to a prolonged lockdown. Fitch forecast 5 per cent contraction in 2020-21, a sharp decline from 0.8 per cent growth projected by the global rating agency in late April. Crisil also predicted the economy to shrink by 5 per cent in the current fiscal. Earlier, it projected a growth of 1.8 per cent. The former finance secretary termed India’s lockdown strategy to contain spread of coronavirus as faulty. “The lockdown was imposed under a naive belief that India would be able to eliminate COVID-19 from the face of India in three weeks’ time. “India decided to use the brahmastra – total economic and human lockdown – on the entire country when only a tiny part was infected,” he argued. The nationwide “lockdown” was first announced by Prime Minister Narendra Modi on March 24 for 21 days in a bid to contain the spread of the novel coronavirus. The lockdown was first extended till May 3 and then again till May 17. It was further extended till May 31 and now has been extended in containment zones till June 30.

Source: Financial Express

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Exports to Bangladesh yet to resume as truckers fear strict quarantine after return

Exports to neighbouring Bangladesh through the land ports in West Bengal are yet to resume with around 5,000 trucks stuck at various locations along the border, even as the government has announced several relaxations, an official of the exporters' body said on Tuesday. The state administration is not making any intervention to resolve the crisis, triggered by fear among truckers that they will be quarantined following their return from Bangladesh after unloading goods, Federation of Indian Exports Organization's regional chairman (east) Sushil Patwari told .  The trucks are stranded for the last 70 days, causing losses running into crores of rupees, he said. The trade between the two countries takes place through the land ports at Mahadipur in Malda district, Changrabandha in Cooch Behar, Fulbari (Jalpaiguri), Hilli (South Dinajpur), Ghojadanga and Petrapole in North 24- Parganas district. "There is no change in the status of exports to Bangladesh or Nepal. Trucks remain stranded at the various borders. For Bangladesh, some 5,000 trucks are stuck at various land ports over quarantine fears. So far there has been no effective intervention from the state government regarding this," Patwari said. Exporters thought that trade can resume as greater relaxations kicked in on June 1 and the truckers will be exempted from the strict quarantine norms. Mahadipur Exporters Association on Tuesday wrote to the Customs Department, seeking directions to the local administration to resume the trade. The state government allowed resumption of exports on May 11 following the Centre's notification on cross-border trade, but fear among locals over the spread of coronavirus from the returning truckers prevented trade to take off. Even a plan to unload trucks at ground zero failed. "We had advised full PPE for drivers and helpers and sanitisation of trucks but local administration is not willing to take the risk," Patwari said. FIEO on May 27 shot a letter to Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee highlighting plights of the small exporters and raising apprehensions about thousands of job losses. Even as talks have gained momentum over trade through rail road and waterways, exports are yet to begin.

Source: Economic Times

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India needs to open up more and knock down import tariff imposed in last 3 years: Arvind Panagariya

Panagariya said India should continue to engage with Asia Pacific partners and get into RCEP as it prepares to take over the multinational companies from China in areas of textiles, footwear and other labour intensive sectors. Economic liberalisation has done good to India, and the country needs to knock down import tariffs imposed on many products in the last three years, former Niti Aayog Vice-Chairman Arvind Panagariya said on Tuesday. Panagariya also pointed out that COVID-19 pandemic may lead to integration of global labour market. “Liberalisation has done good to us. We are reversing something from which we benefited. I thought that in 1991, India had give(n) up import substitution, but in the last three years, import tariff on many products have been raised,” he said while addressing CII Annual Session 2020. “India needs to open up more and knock down import tariff imposed on many products in the last 3 years. We should bring tariff to 7 per cent and sign trade agreement with the US, RCEP and European Union,” he said. The eminent economist also expressed hope that down the line, India will sign trade agreements with the US, Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) and the European Union. Panagariya said India should continue to engage with Asia Pacific partners and get into RCEP as it prepares to take over the multinational companies from China in areas of textiles, footwear and other labour intensive sectors. The professor of economics at Columbia University also pitched up for setting up Shenzhen-style coastal employment zones to boost manufacturing and creating employment. Panagariya pointed out that there will be greater globalisation post COVID-19 pandemic in terms of integration of labour markets. “Boundaries of the labour market will extend beyond H1 B visa as workers will work from their remote countries,” he said, adding India could emerge as winner if it brings in major reforms in the education sector. Panagariya observed that multilateralism had taken a hit even in the pre-COVID 19 days with bodies like the WTO Dispute Settlement mechanism becoming inoperative due to non-cooperation by the US. “The COVID-19 crisis which has been currently sweeping the world is not likely to affect the process of globalisation,” he stressed. Panagariya said India needs 2-3 large employment zones with full autonomy to change rules. “Today 44 per cent of Indian workforce still involved in farming, you can’t combat poverty without lot of farm workers moving out of farming to low skill industry,” he argued. Also, speaking at the event, Jeffrey Sachs, director of sustainable development, Columbia University, said that India made a big mistake in not joining the RCEP because this is an economic group catering to 3.2 billion people. He stated that in light of the COVID-19 pandemic, countries sealing off their borders to prevent the virus from spreading in the country was not the same thing as reversing globalisation.

Source: Financial Express

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Government in talks with over 600 global investors: Piyush Goyal

NEW DELHI: The government is keeping close tabs on foreign direct investment (FDI) and portfolio flows from neighbouring countries, especially China. At the same time, it is in talks with over 600 global investors for possible investment in the country, commerce and industry minister Piyush Goyal has said.  “Many countries are protecting their domestic industry from opportunistic takeover at a time when valuations are down. It is good if you can bring some restrictions so that companies do not get into hands of certain buyers who would exploit the situation,” Goyal told TOI in an interview.  Asked if India had opted to impose checks only for investment from neighbouring countries, the minister said, “The primary focus is that critical sectors remain under domestic ownership. FDI and FPI flows will be watched carefully,” he said, without naming China. The government had recently put investment from countries with which India shares borders under the approval route, a move that was aimed at scrutinising investments from China. The finance ministry is also in talks with Sebi and the RBI to see if similar checks can be imposed in case of FPI (foreign portfolio investment) flows.  In fact, for the government, tapping investors looking at options outside China is another focus area as it seeks to ramp up domestic production. Goyal said the building blocks are already in place, with the Narendra Modi government announcing a sharp reduction in corporation tax, while announcing a series of steps to open up the economy through reforms in mining, agriculture and industry. “The commerce and industry ministry is also working with stakeholders and has identified 12 sectors with a huge potential for exports or sectors where import substitution is possible.” “Despite Covid, people are willing to invest top dollar. There is a lot of positivity, given that the PM has demonstrated to the world that India is a dependable trading partner,” the minister said. He said that after the lockdown, there were sufficient signs of a pick-up in economic activity and pointed to power consumption coming back, while consumption of industrial oxygen was almost 80% of last year’s level.  Exports which had fallen by a massive 60% in April, are estimated to be 30-55% lower in May and could be down by 10-15% in June, he added. “Industry is ramping up quite rapidly… If we play with the current trajectory, India will come out faster. We have lost two valuable months and there is certainly a lot of stress on a lot of parameters. There will be near normalcy in June. We will work with the states and stakeholders to see how we can catch up in the remaining nine months… You can’t see overnight normalcy, it will be gradual.” He said the Atmanirbhar Bharat package’s thrust to provide credit to small businesses, along with several reform initiatives, will help business emerge from the recent impact of the lockdown. Asked about trade deal with the US, the minister said a lot of issues had been sorted out during US president Donald Trump’s India visit and some mails were also exchanged before the lockdown kicked in. “Covid caused a collateral damage to what was agreed.” The minister said railways, which is his other charge, will continue with its investment plans and said the private sector will play a major role in running new trains and in setting up new lines for freight and passenger traffic movement. “The vision is to invest Rs 50 lakh crore over the next 12 years and elaborate work is going on.”

Source: Times of India

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Global Textile Raw Material Price 03-06-2020

 

Item

Price

Unit

Fluctuation

Date

PSF

813.37

USD/Ton

0%

03-06-2020

VSF

1279.46

USD/Ton

0%

03-06-2020

ASF

1599.33

USD/Ton

0%

03-06-2020

Polyester    POY

762.05

USD/Ton

0.74%

03-06-2020

Nylon    FDY

1968.40

USD/Ton

0%

03-06-2020

40D    Spandex

3978.98

USD/Ton

0%

03-06-2020

Nylon    POY

1848.89

USD/Ton

0.38%

03-06-2020

Acrylic    Top 3D

1771.56

USD/Ton

0%

03-06-2020

Polyester    FDY

970.14

USD/Ton

0%

03-06-2020

Nylon    DTY

2277.72

USD/Ton

0%

03-06-2020

Viscose    Long Filament

5174.08

USD/Ton

0%

03-06-2020

Polyester    DTY

998.26

USD/Ton

0%

03-06-2020

30S    Spun Rayon Yarn

1729.38

USD/Ton

0%

03-06-2020

32S    Polyester Yarn

1391.94

USD/Ton

0%

03-06-2020

45S    T/C Yarn

2165.24

USD/Ton

0.33%

03-06-2020

40S    Rayon Yarn

1898.10

USD/Ton

0%

03-06-2020

T/R    Yarn 65/35 32S

1659.08

USD/Ton

0.85%

03-06-2020

45S    Polyester Yarn

1574.72

USD/Ton

0%

03-06-2020

T/C    Yarn 65/35 32S

2010.58

USD/Ton

0%

03-06-2020

10S    Denim Fabric

1.12

USD/Meter

0%

03-06-2020

32S    Twill Fabric

0.64

USD/Meter

-0.22%

03-06-2020

40S    Combed Poplin

0.94

USD/Meter

0%

03-06-2020

30S    Rayon Fabric

0.48

USD/Meter

0%

03-06-2020

45S    T/C Fabric

0.64

USD/Meter

0%

03-06-2020

Source: Global Textiles

Note: The above prices are Chinese Price (1 CNY = 0.14060 USD dtd. 03/06/2020). The prices given above are as quoted from Global Textiles.com.  SRTEPC is not responsible for the correctness of the same.

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Foreign direct investments could contract by 40% this year, hitting developing countries hardest

  • Coronavirus has dramatically impacted globalization, with flows of foreign direct investments (FDI) being disrupted as a result.
  • According to the UN Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD), global FDI flows are expected to contract between 30 to 40% during 2020/21.
  • If the contraction in global FDI lasts for a while, the consequences for developing countries will be severe.

COVID-19 is uprooting economic globalization. With both supply and demand experiencing simultaneous shocks due to containment measures, global production networks are being disrupted on a scale never witnessed before. The pandemic has exposed how globally interconnected the flow of goods and services has become, and countries are now rethinking their international trade strategies to reduce their vulnerability to global economic shocks. Disruptions to flows of foreign direct investments (FDI) — which are part and parcel of economic globalization — are no exception. In late March, the International Monetary Fund announced that investors had removed 83 billion US$ from developing countries since the beginning of the COVID-19 crisis, the largest capital outflow ever recorded.1 According to the UN Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD), global FDI flows are expected to contract between 30 per cent to 40 per cent during 2020/21. All sectors will be affected, but sharp contractions in FDI are especially evident in consumer cyclicals, such as airlines, hotels, restaurants and leisure, as well as manufacturing industries and the energy sector.2. The contraction in FDI is going to hit developing countries particularly hard. The reasons for this are that first, FDI inflows to developing countries are expected to drop even more than the global average, considering that those sectors that have been severely impacted by the pandemic account for a larger share of FDI inflows in developing countries.3 Second, developing countries have become more reliant on FDI over the last few decades. FDI inflows to developing countries increased from 14 billion to 690 billion US$ (current prices) between 1985 and 2017. This represents an increase from 25 per cent to 46 per cent as a share of world FDI inflows. The increase in FDI to developing countries is underpinned by a rise in both offshoring and global fragmentation of economic activities, especially within the manufacturing and services sectors. The drop in global FDI is therefore very much related to the disruptions in global supply chains, which we have also witnessed as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic. FDI inflows to developing countries are not uniform in either quantity or quality. Fast-growing economies in Asia with large populations have been driving the surge over the past few decades, most importantly China, but also Cambodia, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Myanmar, Philippines, Thailand and Viet Nam.4 The inflows of investments into these countries are mainly concentrated in manufacturing and services. If we look at dependence on FDI inflows rather than their quantity, African countries enter the picture. The FDI inflows to Africa tell a different story to those of developing countries in Asia. In Africa, the extractive industries, such as oil and mining, attract most FDI inflows.5 This type of direct investments tends to be more volatile, which explains the erratic swings in FDI inflows in the cases of Congo and Mozambique. Ethiopia is an exception with the growth in FDI inflows being largely concentrated in the manufacturing sector. The consequences of FDI contraction (and resumption) for developing countries. Making predictions about the economic consequences of COVID-19 is a thankless task. We do not know how quickly economic activities will resume, we cannot yet determine the scale of the damage from the fall in global demand and supply, and we cannot envisage the nature of potential future fiscal stimulus packages.  Comparing recent data on business confidence in China and the United States — two countries that have an important impact on global investment flows — might give us a hint though as to the future of global investment flows. From the chart below, we see that China is following a different trend compared to the United States: business confidence in China is improving towards pre-pandemic levels. What does this mean? At the most obvious level, it means that China is resuming production and work earlier than other countries (business confidence in most other countries are showing trends similar to the United States). Monthly production data in China confirms this trend, as we see that manufacturing output rebounded sharply in March.  Taken together, this could indicate that we are seeing the start of a global V-shaped recovery of business activity, and that, assuming other countries’ recoveries, the global slump in FDI will not be as dire as predicted by some people. Or, it could indicate that Chinese companies are using this crisis as an opportunity for further expanding their global influence. In fact, FDI outflows from the Global South, primarily China, has been on the rise for a number of years now.6 So it is not unthinkable that this pandemic will influence the composition of global FDI flows in the future. It should be borne in mind, however, that the measure we are using here to indicate business confidence in China, the Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), has been subject to scrutiny.7 Yet more importantly, the PMI reflects a trend, and that trend reveals that levels of production are improving, and not that they have returned to pre-pandemic levels. Additionally, due to the nature of FDI, we should be prepared for a slow recovery. In many instances, cross-border business ties need to be re-established; investors are normally more risk averse abroad than at home, and there are a number of complicated operations and logistics challenges involved in restarting production in a foreign country. The consequences of a global FDI contraction could be more dire for developing countries with a more diversified portfolio of FDI inflows because the potential economic benefits of those inflows are greater. If the contraction in global FDI lasts for a while, the consequences for developing countries will be severe. It will impact them in different ways, however. Countries whose extractive sectors depend on FDI inflows, many of which are in Africa, will first and foremost experience a loss in export revenues (which many already have due to the plunge in prices for primary commodities, especially oil8). The consequences of a global contraction in FDI could be even more serious for developing countries with a more diversified portfolio of FDI inflows, because the potential benefits of such inflows are greater: FDI inflows do not only boost export revenues in these countries, they also boost employment, tend to have a more positive impact on infrastructure development, and can result in technology transfers to the host economy, particularly in the manufacturing sector.9 In addition to a loss of investments, we can expect many investors to halt their plans for expansion. Attracting investors is only the first step towards a successful FDI strategy. Convincing investors to stay and expand their operations is a key factor for achieving economic development goals.  The competition among developing countries to attract FDI from high-income countries has become fiercer than ever, particularly in manufacturing. The nature of competition in the global economy of the 21st century is also an issue of concern in relation to the contraction in FDI to developing countries. The competition among developing countries to attract FDI from high-income countries and/or serve as suppliers for consumer markets in high-income countries has become fiercer than ever, particularly in manufacturing. The developing-country share of low-tech manufacturing exports has almost tripled since 1980, and the global pool of unskilled labour has doubled since 1990.10 This means that reopening production quickly after the pandemic has been contained, perhaps even prematurely, can provide a competitive edge. For example, garment manufacturers in Bangladesh have been pressured to restart production despite the associated health risk. Factory owners fear that overseas retailers will simply source production from other countries like China, Viet Nam or Cambodia if they do not resume production quickly.11 In other words, there seems to be a trade-off between keeping employees safe from the health-risks associated with COVID-19 and retaining a competitive edge.

Policy efforts to mitigate the negative effects of FDI contraction

To recover post-COVID-19, the world—and developing countries in particular—will require a significant influx of resources. FDI inflows can bring in some of those resources, but governments will need to put conditions in place to help attract and retain productive investments and, more importantly, to maximize their development benefits. This crisis may offer a window of opportunity for governments to re-examine their approaches to investment attraction and retention, with a view towards increasing the embeddedness of FDI within their local economies. To this end, we highlight three focal areas that may require novel policy approaches and thus deserve increased attention from policymakers:  First, measures and supportive mechanisms to help local firms overcome supply-side constraints must be introduced and further strengthened. Two types of measures specifically can be fruitful in the longer term in this respect, both for developing stronger linkages between local and foreign firms, as well as to improve competitiveness of local industrial structures: the development of a system of quality certification that is often required to enter into the supply chains of foreign firms, and improvements in digital infrastructure that allow firms to operate remotely both along global value chains and in reaching out to foreign markets. Second, export processing zones (EPZs), which have been an important tool for attracting FDI in many developing countries, should be designed in a way to link up to the domestic economy. This calls for EPZ regulations that support the establishment of local supplier relationships, including the design of supplier development programmes to support match-making processes between foreign firms and local suppliers.  Third, international actions to support countries during and after the pandemic need to pay particular attention to least developed countries. Those countries are facing particularly hard budget constraints and are often limited to implementing policies that focus primarily on investment facilitation measures, simply because they do not have the resources to offer more substantive support to their private sector firms.12 This is why it is crucial for international organizations and country groupings, like the United Nations and the G20, to respond to their calls for support by advocating and facilitating cooperation in the area of international investment and trade policy.

Source: World Economic Forum

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A promising approach in the development of antibacterial textiles

A present research reports on the synthesis and characterisation of copper oxide nanoparticles (CuONPs) and their application on cotton fabric to increase the bactericidal and hydrophobic properties. The synthesised materials have been subjected to spectroscopic and microscopic characterisations to help in understanding their structure, morphology, size, and composition. Further, upon dispersion of the nanoparticles onto the fabric, its hydrophobicity and mechanical properties were evaluated using electron microscopy and universal testing machine.  Treated cotton fabric exhibits higher tensile strength (32 MPa) than the untreated one (27 MPa), whereas copper nanoparticle-coated cotton fabric shows a fair hydrophobicity.

Greater antibacterial activity

Moreover, CuONPs-treated and untreated cotton fabrics have been analysed for bactericidal activity against various gram-negative and gram-positive strains. Finally, the CuONPs-coated cotton fabric displays greater antibacterial activity against E. coli and exhibits superior antimicrobial activity even after 30 cycles of washing, indicating that the CuONPs-coated cotton fabric has a higher potential to be employed as a medical textile to avoid cross-infection within a clinical environment.

Source: European Coatings

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COVID-19: World Bank urges countries to go for comprehensive policies to boost long-term growth

The World Bank on Tuesday urged countries to go for comprehensive policies to boost long-term growth along with short term measures to address health emergencies and secure core public services in the wake of the coronavirus crisis, amid indications that 60 million people could be pushed into extreme poverty in 2020. The scope and speed with which the COVID-19 pandemic and economic shutdowns have devastated the poor around the world are unprecedented in modern times, World Bank Group President David Malpass said. "Current estimates show that 60 million people could be pushed into extreme poverty in 2020. These estimates are likely to rise further, with the reopening of advanced economies the primary determinant," he told reporters during a conference call as the World Bank released analytical chapters from its flagship Global Economic Prospects report. Noting that the coronavirus pandemic and the economic shutdowns are dealing a severe blow to the global economy, especially poorer countries, the report said developing nations and the international community can take steps now to speed up recovery after the worst of the health crisis has passed and blunt long-term adverse effects. "Policy choices made today - including greater debt transparency to invite new investment, faster advances in digital connectivity, and a major expansion of cash safety nets for the poor - will help limit the damage and build a stronger recovery," Malpass said. "The financing and building of productive infrastructure are among the hardest-to-solve development challenges in the post-pandemic recovery. We need to see measures to speed litigation and the resolution of bankruptcies and reform the costly subsidies, monopolies and protected state-owned enterprises that have slowed development," he said. Short-term response measures to address the health emergency and secure core public services will need to be accompanied by comprehensive policies to boost long-term growth, including by improving governance and business environments, and expanding and improving the results of investment in education and public health, the World Bank report said. To make future economies more resilient, many countries will need systems that can build and retain more human and physical capital during the recovery - using policies that reflect and encourage the post-pandemic need for new types of jobs, businesses and governance systems, it said. According to the report, in the long-term, the pandemic will leave lasting damage through multiple channels, including lower investment; erosion of physical and human capital due to closure of businesses and loss of schooling and jobs; and a retreat from global trade and supply linkages.  These effects will lower potential output - the output an economy can sustain at full employment and capacity - and labor productivity well into the future. Pre-existing vulnerabilities, fading demographic dividends, and structural bottlenecks will amplify the long-term damage of deep recessions associated with the pandemic, it said. "When the pandemic struck, many emerging and developing economies were already vulnerable due to record-high debt levels and much weaker growth. Combined with structural bottlenecks, this will amplify the long-term damage of deep recessions associated with the pandemic," said Ceyla Pazarbasioglu, World Bank Vice President for Equitable Growth, Finance and Institutions. "Urgent measures are needed to limit the damage, rebuild the economy, and make growth more robust, resilient and sustainable," Pazarbasioglu said. During the recovery period, countries will need to calibrate the winding down of public support and should be targeting broader development challenges. The Bank analysis discusses the importance of allowing an orderly allocation of new capital toward sectors that are productive in the new post-pandemic structures that emerge. To succeed in this, countries will need reforms that allow capital and labour to adjust relatively fast - by speeding the resolution of disputes, reducing regulatory barriers, and reforming the costly subsidies, monopolies and protected state-owned enterprises that have slowed development, the report said.

Source: Economic Times

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Time to work with Asian partners on a global COVID-19 recovery strategy

As the world contemplates the savage impact of the COVID-19 virus on the global economy, there’s need to seize initiative in global cooperation to escape the slump caused by the health lockdown. International economic cooperation will be vital to managing the crisis and to supporting the recovery through trade, stabilising markets, faster reopening of business supply chains and international travel. Without it, the world is facing a prolonged health crisis and lasting economic stagnation on a scale not seen since the Great Depression. In this geopolitically fractured world, international cooperation is no easy call. The United States, the world’s biggest power, has lost its appetite for multilateral cooperation and is at odds strategically with China, the world’s second largest power. Strategic competition between the United States and China ultimately limits both countries’ capacity to contribute constructively to global recovery. A compact for multilateral cooperation between Asian nations can be the starting point. Because of the weight and potential they have in the world economy, Asian economies are central to recovery from the COVID-19 crisis. Struck first by the virus, they are positioned to restart their economies sooner. Asia can help lead the exit from the crisis and be a vital source of global economic recovery.  Asia, like the rest of the world, has to deal simultaneously with twin challenges: the big international health challenges and the economic policy challenges of exit from the crisis. Failure to navigate judiciously between these two will cause social disruption, more deaths and economic hardship. The task of defining the way forward on both fronts at the same time is urgent. An Asian experts group convened by the Asian Bureau of Economic Research, of which we were members, today released its Asian COVID-19 recovery strategy paper, calling for ASEAN+6 nations (ASEAN plus China, Japan, South Korea, India, Australia and New Zealand) to move rapidly to coordinate financial, trade, public health and food security action to avoid prolonged stagnation and push the United States and Europe to join them. The foundations for gearing up regional policy action in Asia were laid at an ASEAN+3 summit last month that included leaders from Southeast Asia, China, Japan and South Korea, and committed to health and economic policy coordination. Australia, given its record in managing the virus and its economic policy heft, has an important and influential contribution to make in working with its neighbours in ASEAN, Japan, India, South Korea and China in meeting the challenge posed by the virus. There are six important objectives of this initiative in regional policy cooperation

  • To get global central banks and finance ministries to expand bilateral currency swap arrangements and agree on a new issuance of Special Drawing Rights (SDRs) to create a stronger regional financial safety net. This would provide macroeconomic policy space and financial stability simultaneously to combat the public health and economic dimensions of the crisis in developing countries in the region and is a key Indonesian interest.
  • To support the development, production and equitable distribution in Asia of diagnostic tests, a vaccine and treatments through collective commitment of funds to the WHO’s COVID-19 Tools (ACT) Accelerator and the expansion of the COVID-19 ASEAN Response Fund to include ASEAN+6 nations.
  • To keep regional medical and food markets open. It is essential to avoid restrictions on trade in medical equipment and supplies after critical domestic needs have been met. This requires commitment by the region to reducing or eliminating tariffs and non-tariff measures on medical goods and services. Similarly, regional food security will depend on access to international markets and the removal of export restrictions that have been imposed. Current bilateral initiatives to keep food trade open can be consolidated into a regional agreement.
  • To speed up the development of protocols for health certification for international travel to fast-track the resumption of international commerce, travel for study, scientific exchange, temporary labour movement, and tourism. Getting experts together to work through the issues is the first step.
  • Embrace the digital transformation that COVID-19 has brought to health management. Asia can initiate a proactive agenda for collective governance of digital infrastructure that includes regulatory coherence, privacy standards and data sharing. This is now essential to new work practices, innovation in production, supply chain management and delivery of goods and services, including government services.
  • Conclude the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) agreement immediately to ensure regional trade solidarity. Early conclusion of RCEP with 15 members will send a global signal on keeping trade open, ensure food security and keep markets open in East Asia. The RCEP group needs to keep open a path for eventual Indian membership and actively promote economic cooperation with South Asia.

The COVID-19 crisis is now at the centre of the maelstrom that is engulfing global economic and political affairs.  Asia can act to implement this agenda through its ASEAN, ASEAN+3 and ASEAN+6 arrangements, engaging the East Asian Summit countries including the United States, and the APEC and G20 forums, while stepping up to lead WTO and IMF reforms. Coordination through regional and multilateral frameworks will increase the capacity of all Asian nations to contribute constructively to regional and global recovery beyond conflictual geopolitics. Mobilising the political energy and will in Asia to deal with the international ramifications of the COVID-19 crisis immediately will be central to dealing with big global problems we face, to securing regional political stability and to restoring the early prospect of prosperity. Peter Drysdale is Professor Emeritus and Head of the Asian Bureau of Economic Research in the Crawford School of Public Policy at The Australian National University.

Source: East Asia Forum

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